Some Analysts Just Cut Their Noah Holdings Limited (NYSE:NOAH) Estimates
Some Analysts Just Cut Their Noah Holdings Limited (NYSE:NOAH) Estimates
One thing we could say about the analysts on Noah Holdings Limited (NYSE:NOAH) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well. At US$8.41, shares are up 4.5% in the past 7 days. It will be interesting to see if this downgrade motivates investors to start selling their holdings.
關於諾亞財富有限公司(紐交所:NOAH)的分析師,我們可以說一件事情——他們並不樂觀,剛剛對該公司的近期(法定)預測進行了重大的負面修訂。分析師們大幅削減了收入預測,表明了較爲疲弱的前景——這或許是投資者應該調整期望的一個信號。股價在過去7天上漲了4.5%,目前爲每股8.41美元。有趣的是,這個降級是否會激勵投資者開始拋售他們的股票,值得關注。
After the downgrade, the consensus from Noah Holdings' eight analysts is for revenues of CN¥2.5b in 2024, which would reflect an uneasy 9.8% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Before the latest update, the analysts were foreseeing CN¥3.1b of revenue in 2024. It looks like forecasts have become a fair bit less optimistic on Noah Holdings, given the substantial drop in revenue estimates.
在降級後,諾亞財富的八位分析師的一致預測是,2024年的營業收入將達到25億元人民幣,相比去年的業績將出現不安的9.8%下降。在最新更新之前,分析師們預計2024年的營業收入將達到31億元人民幣。可以看出,對於諾亞財富的預測變得越來越少樂觀,收入預測大幅下降。
![1725015748555](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240830/43123323-0-4cf2db83ac19afaa612e9b0aead747ec.webp/bigjpg)
Notably, the analysts have cut their price target 7.0% to CN¥108, suggesting concerns around Noah Holdings' valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Noah Holdings analyst has a price target of CN¥173 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥64.10. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely differing views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
值得注意的是,分析師們將他們的目標價下調了7.0%,至108元人民幣,這表明對諾亞財富的估值存在擔憂。看看分析師預測的範圍也很有指導意義,以評估離群意見與平均意見的不同程度。最樂觀的諾亞財富分析師給出了每股173元人民幣的目標價,而最悲觀的分析師給出的目標價爲64.10元人民幣。因此,在這種情況下,並不會給分析師的目標價過多的信任度,因爲在該業務上存在明顯不同的觀點。考慮到這一點,我們也不會過多依賴共識目標價,因爲這只是一個平均值,而分析師對於該業務存在一些非常不同的觀點。
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Noah Holdings' decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 19% to the end of 2024. This tops off a historical decline of 1.5% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 5.5% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Noah Holdings is expected to see its sales affected worse than other companies in the industry.
我們可以從更大的畫面中來看待這些預測,比如將其與過去的業績進行對比,並評估預測相對於行業中其他公司來說是更加看好還是更加保守。關於這些預測,我們還注意到諾亞財富的下降預計將加速,預計到2024年底,營業收入的年化下降率將達到19%。這在過去五年中形成了1.5%的歷史性下降。與行業中其他公司的分析師預測相比,預計營收(總體上)每年將增長5.5%。因此,儘管有大量公司預計增長,但不幸的是,諾亞財富預計其銷售狀況將較其他行業公司更爲不佳。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their revenue estimates for this year. They also expect company revenue to perform worse than the wider market. Furthermore, there was a cut to the price target, suggesting that the latest news has led to more pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Noah Holdings after today.
拋開其他不談,分析師對今年的預測營業收入進行了下調。他們還預計公司的營業收入表現將不如整個市場。此外,價格目標也有所下調,表明最新的消息使人們對該公司的內在價值更加悲觀。鑑於情緒出現瞭如此明顯的轉變,如果投資者今天對諾亞財富更加謹慎,我們能理解。
Want more information? At least one of Noah Holdings' eight analysts has provided estimates out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
想要更多信息嗎?諾亞財富的八位分析師之一已經提供了2026年的預測數據,您可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.
當然,看到公司管理層投入大量資金投資股票的情況與分析師是否對其評級下調一樣有用。因此,您還可以搜索此處的高內部所有權股票的免費列表。
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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。