Haidilao International Holding Ltd. Just Beat EPS By 8.6%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Haidilao International Holding Ltd. Just Beat EPS By 8.6%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Shareholders of Haidilao International Holding Ltd. (HKG:6862) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 11% to HK$13.12 following its latest half-year results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of CN¥21b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Haidilao International Holding surprised by delivering a statutory profit of CN¥0.38 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
海底撈國際控股有限公司(HKG:6862)的股東本週將感到高興,因爲股價上漲幅度爲11%,達到了13.12港元,追蹤該公司近半年的最新業績表現。總體而言,業績結果是積極的 - 儘管210億人民幣的營業收入與分析師的預測相符,海底撈國際控股通過每股0.38人民幣的法定利潤交出了一個遜色於預期的成績。根據這一結果,分析師們已經更新了他們的收益模型,知道他們是否認爲公司的前景發生了重大變化,還是一切照常。因此,我們收集了最新的業績後法定共識預測,以了解明年可能會發生什麼。
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Haidilao International Holding's 32 analysts is for revenues of CN¥45.7b in 2024. This would reflect an okay 3.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 12% to CN¥0.86. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥46.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.90 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
綜合考慮最新的結果,海底撈國際控股的32位分析師的當前共識是預計2024年的營業收入達到457億元人民幣。這將反映出過去12個月營業收入的3.7%的增長。 據預測,每股收益將增長12%,達到0.86元人民幣。 在此報告的前期,分析師一直在模擬2024年的營收爲463億元人民幣,每股收益爲0.90元人民幣。在最新的結果公佈後,分析師們對該企業的未來業績表現變得更加悲觀,因爲他們對明年每股收益的預期相對降低。
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 14% to HK$17.42, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Haidilao International Holding analyst has a price target of HK$26.64 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$12.46. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
也許讓人驚訝的是,共識價格目標下調了14%,降至17.42港元,分析師明顯將下調的盈利預測與股價表現聯繫起來。然而,還有一種考慮價格目標的方法,那就是看分析師提出的價格目標範圍,因爲廣泛的估值範圍可能提示對企業可能出現的結果存在多樣化的觀點。最樂觀的海底撈國際控股分析師將股票價格目標設定爲每股26.64港元,而最悲觀的將其設定爲每股12.46港元。注意到分析師價格目標之間的較大差距了嗎?這對我們來說意味着該公司的基本業務可能存在着相當廣泛的可能性範圍。
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Haidilao International Holding's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Haidilao International Holding's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 7.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 12% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Haidilao International Holding.
這些估算很有趣,但在比較預測和海底撈國際控股過去的表現以及行業內同行時,繪製更廣泛的輪廓可能會更有用。很明顯,人們預期海底撈國際控股的營業收入增長將大幅放緩,預計到2024年末,預期年增長率將達到7.5%。這與過去五年的歷史增長率11%相比。將其與行業中其他公司(根據分析師的預測)進行比較,預計該行業的公司年均收入增長率將爲12%。因此很明顯,雖然預計營業收入增長將放緩,但更廣泛的行業增速也將高於海底撈國際控股。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Haidilao International Holding's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
最重要的是,分析師下調了他們的每股收益預期,顯示這些結果後市情緒明顯下降。幸運的是,分析師也重新確認了他們的營業收入預期,表明其符合預期。儘管我們的數據確實顯示,海底撈國際控股的營業收入預期表現將不如更廣泛的行業。此外,分析師還下調了他們的價格目標,暗示最新消息導致了對企業內在價值的更大悲觀情緒。
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Haidilao International Holding analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
基於此想法,我們認爲業務的長期前景比明年的收益更相關。我們有來自多位海底撈國際控股分析師的預估,截至2026年,您可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Haidilao International Holding that you should be aware of.
但在興奮之前,我們發現了1個對海底撈國際控股的警告信號,您應該注意。
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