Yunnan Energy New Material Co., Ltd. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Yunnan Energy New Material Co., Ltd. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Investors in Yunnan Energy New Material Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002812) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.0% to close at CN¥26.91 following the release of its second-quarter results. Revenues were CN¥2.5b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of CN¥0.15 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 13%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
恩捷股份(SZSE:002812)的投資者度過了一個不錯的一週,股價上漲6.0%,收於人民幣26.91元,在其發佈第二季度業績後。其營業收入達到了人民幣25億,基本符合預期,儘管每股收益表現較好。每股收益達到人民幣0.15,超出預期,打敗分析師預測的13%。對於投資者來說,業績是一個重要的時間點,他們可以追蹤公司的表現,查看分析師對下一年的預測,並了解對公司的情緒是否有變化。我們收集了最近的法定預測,看看分析師在這些結果出來後是否對其盈利模型進行了調整。
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Following last week's earnings report, Yunnan Energy New Material's 16 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be CN¥11.2b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to crater 45% to CN¥0.81 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥13.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.81 in 2024. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a substantial drop in revenue estimates and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers as well.
根據上週的業績,恩捷股份的16位分析師預測2024年的營收將達到人民幣112億,與過去12個月基本持平。在同一時期,每股收益預計將下滑45%,達到人民幣0.81。在此之前,分析師對2024年的營收預測爲人民幣131億,每股收益爲人民幣1.81。看起來,在這些業績結果之後,情緒顯著下跌,營收預估大幅下降,每股收益數字也大幅減少。
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CN¥40.50, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Yunnan Energy New Material's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Yunnan Energy New Material analyst has a price target of CN¥68.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥19.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
分析師對於恩捷股份的目標股價沒有做出重大調整,仍爲人民幣40.50,這表明下調不太可能對恩捷股份的估值產生長期影響。然而,這並不是我們從這些數據中得出的唯一結論,一些投資者在評估分析師的目標股價時,也喜歡考慮估值的差距。最樂觀的恩捷股份分析師給出的目標股價爲人民幣68.00,而最悲觀的值爲人民幣19.00。由於股價目標範圍如此廣泛,分析師們幾乎肯定對基本業務的結果持有着迥異的看法。考慮到這一點,我們不應過於依賴共識的股價目標,因爲它只是一個平均值,分析師對該業務的觀點顯然存在很大分歧。
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.2% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 30% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 15% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Yunnan Energy New Material is expected to lag the wider industry.
通過比較預測與過去業績以及同行業其他公司的表現,可以更好地了解這些預測的背景。我們要強調的是,預計營業收入將出現逆轉,到2024年底預計將年均下降1.2%。這與過去五年30%的歷史增長形成了明顯對比。將這一點與我們的數據相比較,數據顯示同行業其他公司預計將實現年均15%的營收增長。因此,儘管其營收預計將減少,但這片烏雲並沒有銀膜 - 預計恩捷股份將落後於整個行業。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Yunnan Energy New Material. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
最大的擔憂在於分析師們下調了他們對每股收益的預測,暗示恩捷股份可能面臨業務逆風。負面的一面是,他們還下調了營業收入預估,並且預測表明他們的表現將不如整個行業。共識價格目標沒有實質性變化,這表明隨着最新預估的出現,企業的內在價值並未發生重大變化。
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Yunnan Energy New Material going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
在這種思路的基礎上,我們認爲業務的長期前景比明年的收益更爲重要。我們對恩捷股份到2026年的預測,並且您可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Yunnan Energy New Material you should be aware of, and 2 of them can't be ignored.
儘管如此,您應該始終考慮風險。舉例來說,我們已經發現了恩捷股份3個警示信號,您應該注意其中的2個,不能忽視。
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