Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300122) missed earnings with its latest second-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products delivered a grave earnings miss, with both revenues (CN¥6.9b) and statutory earnings per share (CN¥0.32) falling badly short of analyst expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
重慶智飛生物製品有限公司(深交所股票代碼:300122)最新第二季度業績未實現收益,令過於樂觀的預測者失望。重慶智飛生物製品嚴重虧損,收入(69億元人民幣)和法定每股收益(0.32元人民幣)均嚴重低於分析師的預期。分析師通常會在每份收益報告中更新他們的預測,我們可以從他們的估計中判斷他們對公司的看法是否發生了變化,或者是否有任何新的問題需要注意。根據這些結果,我們收集了最新的法定預測,以了解分析師是否改變了盈利模式。
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products' 13 analysts is for revenues of CN¥56.6b in 2024. This would reflect a sizeable 21% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 14% to CN¥2.88. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥57.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥4.09 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.
考慮到最新業績,重慶智飛生物製品的13位分析師目前的共識是,2024年的收入爲566元人民幣。這將反映其收入在過去12個月中大幅增長21%。每股收益預計將增長14%,至2.88元人民幣。然而,在最新業績公佈之前,分析師曾預計2024年的收入爲575元人民幣,每股收益(EPS)爲4.09元人民幣。因此,在最新業績公佈後,市場情緒肯定有所下降,因爲新的每股收益預測已大幅下調。
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CN¥48.29, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥95.88 and the most bearish at CN¥28.00 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
得知共識目標股價基本保持不變,爲48.29元人民幣,這可能會令人驚訝,分析師明確表示,預期的收益下降預計不會對估值產生太大影響。但是,還有另一種思考價格目標的方法,那就是研究分析師提出的價格目標範圍,因爲範圍廣泛的估計可能表明,對業務可能的結果有不同的看法。對重慶智飛生物製品的看法有所不同,最看漲的分析師認爲重慶智飛生物製品爲95.88元人民幣,最看跌的爲每股28.00元人民幣。如您所見,估計範圍很廣,最低估值不到最看漲估計值的一半,這表明對於分析師認爲該業務的表現存在強烈的分歧。因此,根據共識目標股價做出決策可能不是一個好主意,畢竟共識目標價只是如此廣泛的估計值的平均值。
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 47% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 34% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 25% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
我們可以從大局的角度看待這些估計值的另一種方式,例如預測如何與過去的表現相提並論,以及預測相對於業內其他公司是否或多或少看漲。分析師肯定預計,重慶智飛生物製品的增長將加速,預計到2024年底,重慶智飛生物製品的年化增長率將達到47%,與過去五年中每年34%的歷史增長率並駕齊驅。相比之下,我們的數據表明,預計類似行業的其他公司(有分析師報道)的收入將以每年25%的速度增長。考慮到收入增長的預測,很明顯,重慶智飛生物製品的增長速度預計將比其行業快得多。
The Bottom Line
底線
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
最大的擔憂是,分析師下調了每股收益的預期,這表明重慶智飛生物製品可能會面臨業務不利因素。幸運的是,他們還再次確認了收入數字,表明收入符合預期。此外,我們的數據表明,收入的增長速度預計將快於整個行業。共識目標股價沒有實際變化,這表明該業務的內在價值與最新估計相比沒有發生任何重大變化。
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
考慮到這一點,我們不會很快就重慶智飛生物製品得出結論。長期盈利能力比明年的利潤重要得多。我們對重慶智飛生物製品的上市時間預測到2026年,你可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products that you need to take into consideration.
還值得注意的是,我們發現了重慶智飛生物製品的1個警告信號,你需要考慮。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。