Zhejiang JIULI Hi-tech Metals Co.,Ltd (SZSE:002318) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.7% to CN¥19.25 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues came in 8.1% below expectations, at CN¥2.4b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of CN¥1.53 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Zhejiang JIULI Hi-tech MetalsLtd's five analysts is for revenues of CN¥10.8b in 2024. This would reflect a notable 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 6.5% to CN¥1.38 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥11.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.49 in 2024. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥27.92 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Zhejiang JIULI Hi-tech MetalsLtd analyst has a price target of CN¥30.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥25.84. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Zhejiang JIULI Hi-tech MetalsLtd's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 26% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 16% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 9.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Zhejiang JIULI Hi-tech MetalsLtd is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Zhejiang JIULI Hi-tech MetalsLtd. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Zhejiang JIULI Hi-tech MetalsLtd going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Zhejiang JIULI Hi-tech MetalsLtd that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.