Shanghai Zhongchen Electronic TechnologyLtd's (SHSE:603275) Promising Earnings May Rest On Soft Foundations
Shanghai Zhongchen Electronic TechnologyLtd's (SHSE:603275) Promising Earnings May Rest On Soft Foundations
Shanghai Zhongchen Electronic Technology Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:603275) just reported some strong earnings, and the market reacted accordingly with a healthy uplift in the share price. We did some analysis and think that investors are missing some details hidden beneath the profit numbers.
上海中臣電子科技股份有限公司(SHSE:603275)剛剛公佈了一些強勁的收益,市場對此做出了積極反應,股價出現了大幅提升。我們進行了一些分析,並認爲投資者可能忽略了利潤數字之下隱藏的一些細節。
A Closer Look At Shanghai Zhongchen Electronic TechnologyLtd's Earnings
對上海中臣電子科技股份有限公司的收益進行更詳細的分析
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
很多投資者並不了解從現金流量表中計算的預付賬款率,但它實際上是衡量公司利潤由自由現金流(FCF)支撐情況的有用指標。簡單地講,這個比率將自由現金流(FCF)從淨利潤中減去,然後除以該期間公司的平均營運資產。這一比率告訴我們公司多少利潤不由自由現金流支撐。
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
這意味着負應計比率是一件好事,因爲它表明公司帶來的自由現金流比其利潤所建議的要多。這並不意味着我們應該擔心正應計比率,但值得注意的是應計比率相當高的地方。這是因爲一些學術研究表明,高應計比率往往會導致利潤降低或利潤增長較少。
Over the twelve months to June 2024, Shanghai Zhongchen Electronic TechnologyLtd recorded an accrual ratio of 0.34. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit, suggesting we might want to think twice before putting a lot of weight on the latter. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥37m despite its profit of CN¥204.2m, mentioned above. It's worth noting that Shanghai Zhongchen Electronic TechnologyLtd generated positive FCF of CN¥135m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.
在截至2024年6月的十二個月中,上海中臣電子科技股份有限公司的應計比率爲0.34。因此我們可以推斷其自由現金流遠遠不足以覆蓋其法定利潤,這意味着在重視後者之前我們可能要三思。在過去的十二個月中,儘管它的利潤爲2,0420萬元,但其實際上有負的自由現金流,流出了3700萬元人民幣。值得注意的是,上海中臣電子科技股份有限公司在一年前產生了1,3500萬元人民幣的正向自由現金流,所以至少他們過去做到了這一點。然而,並不僅僅是考慮這些。應計比率在一定程度上反映了非經常性項目對法定利潤的影響。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Shanghai Zhongchen Electronic TechnologyLtd.
注意:我們始終建議投資者查看資產負債表的強弱。點擊此處查看對上海中晨電子科技有限公司的資產負債表分析。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
非常規項目如何影響利潤?
Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Shanghai Zhongchen Electronic TechnologyLtd's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥18m in the last twelve months. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. If Shanghai Zhongchen Electronic TechnologyLtd doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.
考慮到應計比率,上海中晨電子科技有限公司過去12個月的利潤被價值爲1800萬人民幣的特殊項目提升,這並不奇怪。我們不能否認,更高的利潤通常會讓我們感到樂觀,但我們更希望利潤能夠持續。當我們分析全球絕大多數上市公司時,我們發現重大特殊項目通常不會重複出現。畢竟,這就是會計術語的含義。如果上海中晨電子科技有限公司沒有看到該貢獻值重複出現,那麼一切相等的情況下,我們預計它的利潤在當前年度會下降。
Our Take On Shanghai Zhongchen Electronic TechnologyLtd's Profit Performance
對上海中晨電子科技有限公司的利潤表現的我們觀點
Summing up, Shanghai Zhongchen Electronic TechnologyLtd received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Shanghai Zhongchen Electronic TechnologyLtd's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. If you want to do dive deeper into Shanghai Zhongchen Electronic TechnologyLtd, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. For example - Shanghai Zhongchen Electronic TechnologyLtd has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
綜上所述,上海中晨電子科技有限公司從特殊項目中獲得了良好的利潤提升,但未能將紙面利潤與自由現金流相匹配。基於上述原因,我們認爲,對上海中晨電子科技有限公司的法定利潤進行膚淺的審視可能會使其看起來比實際情況更好。如果您想更深入地了解上海中晨電子科技有限公司,您還應該考慮它目前面臨的風險。例如,上海中晨電子科技有限公司有1個我們認爲您應該了解的警示標誌。
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
在本文中,我們看了許多可能損害利潤數字實用性的因素,我們持謹慎態度。但還有很多其他方法可以了解一家公司的觀點。一些人認爲高淨資產收益率是高質量企業的好跡象。因此,您可能希望查看這裏提供的高淨資產收益率公司的免費集合,或者這裏持有高內部股權的股票列表。
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