Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Ryder System, Inc. (NYSE:R) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

How Much Debt Does Ryder System Carry?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2024 Ryder System had US$7.48b of debt, an increase on US$6.48b, over one year. However, it also had US$164.0m in cash, and so its net debt is US$7.31b.

How Strong Is Ryder System's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Ryder System had liabilities of US$3.18b due within a year, and liabilities of US$10.1b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$164.0m as well as receivables valued at US$1.86b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$11.3b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the US$6.29b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Ryder System would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Ryder System's debt is 2.8 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 2.7 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Fortunately, Ryder System grew its EBIT by 5.1% in the last year, slowly shrinking its debt relative to earnings. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Ryder System's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Ryder System recorded free cash flow of 47% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

Mulling over Ryder System's attempt at staying on top of its total liabilities, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But at least its EBIT growth rate is not so bad. Overall, it seems to us that Ryder System's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Ryder System (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.