The Past Three Years for China Merchants Securities (SHSE:600999) Investors Has Not Been Profitable
The Past Three Years for China Merchants Securities (SHSE:600999) Investors Has Not Been Profitable
It can certainly be frustrating when a stock does not perform as hoped. But when the market is down, you're bound to have some losers. While the China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600999) share price is down 25% in the last three years, the total return to shareholders (which includes dividends) was -19%. And that total return actually beats the market decline of 30%.
當股票表現不如預期時,確實會讓人感到沮喪。但在市場下跌時,必然會有一些失敗者。招商證券股份有限公司(SHSE:600999)的股價在過去三年下跌了25%,股東的總回報(包括分紅派息)爲-19%。而且總回報實際上超過了市場下跌的30%。
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
由於股東們長期以來都虧損了,因此讓我們回顧過去一段時間的基本面,看看是否一直與收益相一致。
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
雖然一些人仍然在教授高效市場假說,但已經證明市場是過度反應的動態系統,投資者不總是理性的。一種有缺陷但合理的評估公司情緒變化的方法是比較每股收益 (EPS) 與股價。
China Merchants Securities saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 7.0% per year, over the last three years. The share price decline of 9% is actually steeper than the EPS slippage. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past.
招商證券的每股收益以每年7.0%的複合率下降,在過去三年中。股價下跌9%的實際上比每股收益的下滑更加陡峭。因此,看起來市場對該業務過去過於自信。
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
下圖顯示了EPS隨時間變化的情況(點擊圖像以顯示確切值)。
This free interactive report on China Merchants Securities' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
如果您想進一步調查該股票,那麼這份關於招商證券收益、營業收入和現金流量的免費互動報告是一個很好的起點。
What About Dividends?
那麼分紅怎麼樣呢?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of China Merchants Securities, it has a TSR of -19% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
在考慮投資回報時,重要的是要區分股東總回報率(TSR)和股價回報率之間的差異。TSR是一種考慮到現金股息價值(假設收到的任何股息都被重新投資)以及任何折價增資和股權分拆的計算值的回報率計算。所以對於支付豐厚股息的公司來說,TSR通常比股價回報率高得多。就招商證券而言,過去3年的TSR爲-19%。這超過了我們之前提到過的股價回報率。公司支付的股息因此提高了總股東回報率。
A Different Perspective
不同的觀點
It's nice to see that China Merchants Securities shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 3.4% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 2% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for China Merchants Securities that you should be aware of.
很高興看到招商證券股東在過去一年中獲得了總股東回報率爲3.4%的回報。這也包括股息分紅。這比在過去的五年中平均回報率爲2%要好,這意味着公司的表現近來有所改善。考慮到股價勢頭依然強勁,值得更仔細地觀察一下這隻股票,以免錯過機會。我發現長期觀察股價是作爲業務表現的一種代理非常有趣。但要真正獲得洞察力,我們還需要考慮其他信息。例如,我們已經發現了一項招商證券的警示信號,您應該知道。
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
如果您願意查看另一家公司(具有潛在的更好財務狀況),請不要錯過這個免費的公司列表,證明它們可以增長收益。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在中國交易所上市的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。