Jiangxi Welgao Electronics' (SZSE:301251) Shareholders Have More To Worry About Than Lackluster Earnings
Jiangxi Welgao Electronics' (SZSE:301251) Shareholders Have More To Worry About Than Lackluster Earnings
Shareholders didn't appear too concerned by Jiangxi Welgao Electronics Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:301251) weak earnings. We did some digging, and we believe that investors are missing some worrying factors underlying the profit figures.
股東們似乎對江西威爾高電子有限公司並不太擔心。”s(深圳證券交易所股票代碼:301251)收益疲軟。我們進行了一些挖掘,我們認爲投資者遺漏了構成利潤數據的一些令人擔憂的因素。
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Zooming In On Jiangxi Welgao Electronics' Earnings
放大江西威爾高電子的收益
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
正如金融迷已經知道的那樣,現金流的應計比率是評估公司自由現金流(FCF)與利潤匹配程度的關鍵指標。簡而言之,該比率從淨利潤中減去FCF,然後將該數字除以該時期公司的平均運營資產。你可以將現金流的應計比率視爲 「非FCF利潤率」。
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
因此,負的應計比率對公司來說是正數,而正的應計比率是負數。儘管應計比率爲正(表明非現金利潤達到一定水平)不是問題,但高應計比率可以說是一件壞事,因爲它表明紙質利潤與現金流不匹配。那是因爲一些學術研究表明,高應計比率往往會導致利潤下降或利潤增長放緩。
Jiangxi Welgao Electronics has an accrual ratio of 0.48 for the year to June 2024. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥76.8m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥241m in the last year. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥241m, this year, indicates high risk. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.
截至2024年6月的一年中,江西威爾高電子的應計比率爲0.48。從統計學上講,這對未來的收益來說確實是負面的。換句話說,該公司在那段時間內沒有產生一點自由現金流。儘管該公司報告的利潤爲7680萬元人民幣,但看一下自由現金流就會發現,去年它實際上消耗了24100萬元人民幣。在去年自由現金流爲負的背景下,我們想象一些股東可能會懷疑其今年24100萬元的現金消耗是否表明存在高風險。話雖如此,故事還有更多。我們可以看到,不尋常的項目影響了其法定利潤,從而影響了應計比率。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Jiangxi Welgao Electronics.
注意:我們始終建議投資者檢查資產負債表的實力。點擊此處查看我們對江西威爾高電子的資產負債表分析。
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
不尋常物品對利潤的影響
Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Jiangxi Welgao Electronics' profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥15m in the last twelve months. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. If Jiangxi Welgao Electronics doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.
考慮到應計比率,在過去的十二個月中,江西威爾高電子的利潤因價值1500萬元人民幣的不尋常項目而提振也就不足爲奇了。雖然我們希望看到利潤增加,但當不尋常的物品做出重大貢獻時,我們往往會更加謹慎一些。當我們分析全球絕大多數上市公司時,我們發現重大不尋常的事項往往不會重演。這正如你所預料的那樣,因爲這些增強被描述爲 「不尋常」。如果江西威爾高電子認爲這一貢獻不會重演,那麼在其他條件相同的情況下,我們預計其本年度的利潤將下降。
Our Take On Jiangxi Welgao Electronics' Profit Performance
我們對江西威爾高電子盈利表現的看法
Summing up, Jiangxi Welgao Electronics received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. Considering all this we'd argue Jiangxi Welgao Electronics' profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Jiangxi Welgao Electronics you should be aware of.
總而言之,江西威爾高電子從不尋常的項目中獲得了不錯的利潤提振,但其紙面利潤無法與自由現金流相提並論。考慮到所有這些,我們認爲江西威爾高電子的利潤可能給人一種對其可持續盈利水平的過於寬厚的印象。請記住,在分析股票時,值得注意所涉及的風險。一個很好的例子:我們已經發現了江西威爾高電子的兩個警告標誌,你應該注意了。
Our examination of Jiangxi Welgao Electronics has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
我們對江西威爾高電子的審查側重於某些可能使其收益好於實際的因素。而且,在此基礎上,我們有些懷疑。但是,還有很多其他方法可以讓你對公司的看法。例如,許多人認爲高股本回報率是有利的商業經濟的標誌,而另一些人則喜歡 「關注資金」,尋找內部人士正在買入的股票。雖然可能需要你進行一些研究,但你可能會發現這份免費收集的擁有高股本回報率的公司,或者這份擁有大量內幕持股的股票清單很有用。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。