2Q24 core results of the telcos were steady on good cost controls, improved CDB merger synergies, and tight competition. MNOs continue to slug it out on fibre-mobile bundles with lower ARPU from entry level plans. RHB said it has lifted its forecasts on CDB and Maxis post results while estimates were lowered for OCK. Key risks are competition, weaker-than-expected earnings, and regulatory setbacks.
Axiata was the sole outperformer in the June reporting season while OCK fell short of and consensus numbers. Axiata's earnings were bolstered by the strong operating performance of its mobile assets inIndonesia, Bangladesh, Cambodia and its towerco unit (edotCo) with 1H24 EBIT growth of 40% being ahead of 2024 KPI of mid-teens growth. OCK's earnings were crimped by weaker billings from the engineering/contracting segment due to the uncertainties on the 5G second network process with the earnings slack to be partly made up for in 2H24.
Overall sector core earnings fell 5.4% YoY in 2Q24, mainly due to the high base of Telekom Malaysia's earnings in FY23 from tax credits and down a marginal 0.4% QoQ.Steady industry mobile revenue; Maxis revenue and EBITDA market share ccontinue to inch higher. Industry mobile revenue (Big-2) ticked up a marginal 0.8% YoY in 1H24 (+0.2% QoQ). The contraction in industry prepaid revenue persisted (-0.6% QoQ, -2% YoY) on the back of SIM consolidation and pre-topost migration. This was offset by higher postpaid growth (+0.8% QoQ, +3.3% YoY).
Maxis' MSR share inched higher to 43.7% in 2Q24 from 43.5% in 1Q24, at the expense of CDB whose MSR share narrowed further to 56.3% from 56.5% in 1Q24. This came from a 2% QoQ decline in prepaid revenue as subs churn more than double sequentially from higher SIM rotation. On EBITDA market share (EMS) (Big-2), Maxis' EMS improved for the third quarter in a row to 42.8% (1Q24: 41.4%) while CDB's slipped marginally to 57.2% in 2Q24 from 58.6% in 1Q24. Based on media reports, 5G subs (4G subs included) have exceeded 14m at end-May or c.41% of the population (c.28% of subs base).
Fibre broadband (FBB) competition stays keen. With MNOs aggressively upselling/cross-selling FBB packages, TM's share of industry FBB net-adds have decelerated, with lower net-adds of c.10k/quarter on average in 1H24 vs 34k/quarter in FY23.
Four MNOs have submitted their tender for 5G spectrum (TM, Maxis, CDB, and U Mobile). The outcome is expected by 4Q24 with spectrum to be awarded on an apparatus assignment basis. The house sees Maxis as a front-runner for the second 5G network. With TM's share subscription agreement for Digital Nasional Berhad (DNB) terminated, it is likely that TM's tender submission will be disqualified. Management believes it can still play a significant role in the nation's 5G eco-system by being a 5G access seeker. TM's non-participation in DNB's equity and/or the second 5G network is not a concern, as it would be better off providing wholesale 5G fibre backhaul access to 5G network owners.
24年第二季度，由於成本控制得當、國家開發銀行合併協同效應提高以及競爭激烈，電信公司的核心業績保持穩定。MNO 繼續在光纖移動套餐中大放異彩，其ARPU低於入門級計劃。RhB表示，它已經上調了對CdB和Maxis公佈業績的預測，同時下調了對OCK的預期。關鍵風險是競爭、低於預期的收益和監管方面的挫折。
Axiata是6月報告季中唯一表現跑贏大盤的公司，而OCK則沒有達到共識數字。Axiata的收益得益於其在印度尼西亞、孟加拉國、柬埔寨的移動資產及其塔科部門（eDotCo）的強勁經營業績，24年上半年的息稅前利潤增長了40％，高於2024年十幾歲的關鍵績效指標。由於5G第二網絡流程的不確定性，工程/承包領域的賬單疲軟，OCK的收益受到抑制，收益疲軟將在24年下半年部分彌補。
該行業整體核心收益在24年第二季度同比下降5.4％，這主要是由於馬來西亞電信在23財年從稅收抵免中獲得的收益基數很高，環比略下降了0.4％。行業移動收入穩定；Maxis收入和息稅折舊攤銷前利潤市場份額繼續小幅上升。行業移動收入（Big-2）在24年上半年同比小幅增長0.8％（環比增長0.2％）。由於SIM卡整合和前後遷移，行業預付費收入持續萎縮（環比下降0.6％，同比下降2％）。這被更高的後付費增長（環比增長0.8％，同比增長3.3％）所抵消。
Maxis的MSR份額從24年第一季度的43.5％小幅上升至24年第二季度的43.7％，這要歸因於CDB，其MSR份額從24年第一季度的56.5％進一步縮小至56.3％。這源於預付費收入環比下降了2％，這是由於SIM卡週轉率的增加，訂閱量連續流失了兩倍以上。在息稅折舊攤銷前利潤（EMS）（Big-2）方面，明訊的EMS連續第三季度增長至42.8％（24年第一季度：41.4％），而國開行的EMS從24年第一季度的58.6％小幅下滑至24年第二季度的57.2％。根據媒體報道，截至5月底，5G訂閱者（包括4G訂閱者）已超過1400萬，占人口的約41％（約佔訂閱量基礎的28％）。
光纖寬帶（FBB）競爭依然激烈。隨着移動網絡運營商積極向上銷售/交叉銷售fBB套餐，TM在行業fBB淨增量中的份額有所減速，24年上半年的平均淨增加量爲1萬左右，低於23財年的3.4萬個季度。
四家移動運營商已經提交了5G頻譜的招標（Tm、Maxis、cdB和U Mobile）。結果預計將在24年第四季度公佈，頻譜將在設備分配的基礎上授予。該公司將明訊視爲第二個5G網絡的領跑者。隨着TM對Digital Nasional Berhad（DNB）的股票認購協議終止，TM提交的投標可能會被取消資格。管理層認爲，通過成爲5G接入尋求者，它仍然可以在美國的5G生態系統中發揮重要作用。TM不參與DNB的股權和/或第二個5G網絡並不令人擔憂，因爲最好向5G網絡所有者提供批發的5G光纖回程接入。
