The online dating industry had a somewhat awkward second quarter. Global spending showed a modest 3% year-over-year growth — in line with JPMorgan analysts' expectations.
Cory A Carpenter, Daniel Pfeiffer and Doug Anmuth shared their views on the online dating industry in the light of the recent earnings reports. There's one key observation they share: Not all dating apps are feeling the love equally.
Tinder Stabilizes, Bumble Stumbles
Match Group Inc (NASDAQ:MTCH) owned Tinder showed "encouraging signs of stability" this quarter, with growth holding steady at 1% year-over-year.
On the other hand, Bumble Inc's (NASDAQ:BMBL) attempt to reignite the Bumble dating app's appeal with a much-hyped relaunch seemed to fizzle out faster than a bad first date. The result? Bumble had to dramatically cut its 2024 revenue outlook from a hopeful 8-11% down to a mere 1-2%, prompting JPMorgan to revise their third-quarter industry growth expectations from 3% to just 1% year-over-year.
Hinge & Grindr: The Life Of The Party
While Bumble struggled, Match Group's Hinge and China-based Beijing Kunlun Tech Co.-owned Grindr, were the life of the party.
Hinge, with its "sustainably growing over 20%" year-over-year, achieved a whopping 48% year-over-year growth, while Grindr wasn't far behind with 34% year-over-year.
These apps have consistently "exceeded expectations" in recent quarters and show no signs of slowing down. In fact, the analysts predict Hinge will continue to shine with 35% year-over-year revenue growth in 3Q, while Grindr is set to see a 23% increase.
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Looking Ahead: Swipe Right On 2025?
As we look to the future, JPMorgan analysts remain cautiously optimistic. They expect online dating trends to start improving in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a return to high-single-digit (HSD) growth in 2025. Tinder is expected to step up its game, with growth projected to move into the mid-single digits, driven by gains in both revenue per payer and user numbers.
However, the road to lasting love (and growth) isn't without its bumps.
The analysts warn that to maintain high single-digit growth beyond 2025, the industry will need a serious dose of innovation. Without fresh features and a more satisfying user experience, the online dating world could be in for a cold swipe left.
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在線約會行業第二季度表現有些尷尬.全球支出同比增長3％，符合摩根大通分析師的預期。
根據最近的業績，Cory A Carpenter、Daniel Pfeiffer和Doug Anmuth分享了他們對在線約會行業的看法。他們分享了一個關鍵觀察:並非所有的約會應用程序都能同樣感受到愛.
Tinder 穩定下來，Bumble 跌跌撞撞
Match Group Inc（納斯達克股票代碼：MTCH）旗下的Tinder本季度表現出 「令人鼓舞的穩定跡象」，同比增長穩定在1％。
另一方面，Bumble Inc（納斯達克股票代碼：BMBL）試圖通過大肆宣傳的重啓來重燃Bumble約會應用程序的吸引力，但失敗的速度似乎比第一次約會糟糕的要快。結果？Bumble不得不將其2024年的收入前景從預期的8-11％大幅下調至僅1-2％，這促使摩根大通將其第三季度行業同比增長預期從3％下調至僅1％。
Hinge & Grindr：派對生活
在 Bumble 苦苦掙扎時，Match Group 的 Hinge 和總部位於中國的北京崑崙科技股份有限公司-擁有 Grindr，是派對的焦點。
Hinge的同比增長 「持續增長超過20％」，實現了高達48％的同比增長，而Grindr緊隨其後，同比增長了34％。
這些應用程序在最近幾個季度一直在 「超出預期」，並且沒有放緩的跡象。實際上，分析師預測，Hinge將在第三季度繼續大放異彩，收入同比增長35％，而Grindr的收入將增長23％。
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展望未來：在 2025 年向右滑動？
展望未來，摩根大通分析師仍持謹慎樂觀態度。他們預計，在線約會趨勢將在2024年第四季度開始改善，到2025年將恢復高個位數（HSD）增長。受每位付款人收入和用戶數量增長的推動，預計Tinder將加緊努力，增長預計將達到中等個位數。
但是，通往持久愛情（和成長）的道路並非沒有顛簸。
分析師警告說，要在2025年之後保持較高的個位數增長，該行業將需要大量的創新。沒有新功能和更令人滿意的用戶體驗, 在線約會世界可能會陷入困境.
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