Is CF Industries Holdings (NYSE:CF) Using Too Much Debt?
Is CF Industries Holdings (NYSE:CF) Using Too Much Debt?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
由伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李露對此毫不掩飾,他說:「最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。」因此,很明顯,當你考慮任何給定股票的風險時,你需要考慮債務,因爲過多的債務會使公司陷入困境。我們可以看到,CF工業控股有限公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:CF)確實在其業務中使用了債務。但真正的問題是這筆債務是否使公司面臨風險。
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
爲什麼債務會帶來風險?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
一般而言,只有當公司無法通過籌集資金或用自己的現金流輕鬆還清債務時,債務才會成爲真正的問題。如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可以控制業務。但是,更頻繁(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,公司必須以低廉的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東,以支撐其資產負債表。但是,通過取代稀釋,對於需要資金以高回報率投資增長的企業來說,債務可能是一個非常好的工具。當我們研究債務水平時,我們首先要同時考慮現金和債務水平。
What Is CF Industries Holdings's Net Debt?
CF Industries Holdings的淨負債是多少?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that CF Industries Holdings had US$2.97b in debt in June 2024; about the same as the year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$1.82b, its net debt is less, at about US$1.15b.
您可以點擊下圖查看更多詳情,該圖表顯示,2024年6月,CF Industries Holdings的債務爲29.7億美元;與前一年大致相同。但是,由於其現金儲備爲18.2億美元,其淨負債較少,約爲11.5億美元。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240904/0-8a36ab01c8c16bd1c21ef2ea781c9f32-0-433001b6f9b0b271c6199b8fca2ee413.png/big)
How Healthy Is CF Industries Holdings' Balance Sheet?
CF Industries Holdings的資產負債表有多健康?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that CF Industries Holdings had liabilities of US$596.0m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$5.08b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$1.82b as well as receivables valued at US$531.0m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$3.32b.
我們可以從最新的資產負債表中看出,CF Industries Holdings的負債爲5.96億美元,一年後到期的負債爲50.8億美元。除這些債務外,它有18.2億美元的現金以及價值5.310億美元的應收賬款在12個月內到期。因此,其負債超過其現金和(短期)應收賬款總額33.2億美元。
This deficit isn't so bad because CF Industries Holdings is worth a massive US$15.0b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
這種赤字還不錯,因爲CF Industries Holdings的市值高達150億美元,因此,如果需要,可能會籌集足夠的資金來支撐其資產負債表。但是,我們絕對希望留意其債務帶來過大風險的跡象。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
我們使用兩個主要比率來告知我們相對於收益的債務水平。第一個是淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),第二個是其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)覆蓋其利息支出(或簡稱利息保障)的多少倍。這樣,我們既考慮債務的絕對數量,也考慮爲債務支付的利率。
CF Industries Holdings has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.45. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 828 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for CF Industries Holdings if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 54% cut to EBIT over the last year. When a company sees its earnings tank, it can sometimes find its relationships with its lenders turn sour. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if CF Industries Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
CF Industries Holdings的淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤比率很低,僅爲0.45。而且其息稅前利潤很容易彌補其利息支出,是其規模的828倍。因此,你可以爭辯說,它受到債務的威脅並不比大象受到老鼠的威脅更大。如果管理層無法阻止去年削減54%的息稅前利潤,那麼其適度的債務負擔可能對CF Industries Holdings至關重要。當一家公司看到盈利下降時,它有時會發現與貸款機構的關係惡化。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但最終,該業務未來的盈利能力將決定CF Industries Holdings能否隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果您專注於未來,可以查看這份顯示分析師利潤預測的免費報告。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, CF Industries Holdings generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 80% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
但是我們最終的考慮因素也很重要,因爲公司無法用紙面利潤來償還債務;它需要冷硬現金。因此,值得檢查一下該息稅前利潤中有多少是由自由現金流支持的。在過去三年中,CF Industries Holdings產生的自由現金流相當於其息稅前利潤的80%,超出了我們的預期。這使其在償還債務方面處於非常有利的地位。
Our View
我們的觀點
CF Industries Holdings's interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. But the stark truth is that we are concerned by its EBIT growth rate. All these things considered, it appears that CF Industries Holdings can comfortably handle its current debt levels. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for CF Industries Holdings (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.
CF Industries Holdings的利息保障表明,它可以像克里斯蒂亞諾·羅納爾多在對陣14歲以下的守門員的比賽中進球一樣輕鬆地處理債務。但嚴峻的事實是,我們對其息稅前利潤增長率感到擔憂。考慮到所有這些因素,看來CF Industries Holdings可以輕鬆應對其當前的債務水平。從好的方面來看,這種槓桿作用可以提高股東的回報,但潛在的缺點是損失風險更大,因此值得關注資產負債表。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但歸根結底,每家公司都可以控制資產負債表之外存在的風險。例如,我們已經確定了CF Industries Holdings的兩個警告信號(其中一個令人擔憂),你應該注意。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果你有興趣投資能夠在沒有債務負擔的情況下增加利潤的企業,請查看這份資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業的免費清單。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。