Multifamily REITs Set For Revenue Boost As Supply Pressures Ease, Says Goldman Sachs
Multifamily REITs Set For Revenue Boost As Supply Pressures Ease, Says Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs analyst Julien Blouin initiated coverage of several multifamily REITs and single-family rental REITs companies.
高盛分析師朱利安·布勞因開始對幾家多戶住宅房地產投資信託基金和單戶住宅租賃房地產投資信託基金公司進行報道。
Initiating with a Buy rating, the analyst kept the price target for Invitation Homes Inc. (NYSE:INVH) at $46, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (NYSE:MAA) at $187 and American Homes 4 Rent (NYSE:AMH) at $48.
該分析師最初的評級爲買入，將Invitation Homes Inc.（紐約證券交易所代碼：INVH）的目標股價維持在46美元，中美洲公寓社區公司（紐約證券交易所代碼：MAA）的目標股價爲187美元，將American Homes 4 Rent（紐約證券交易所代碼：AMH）的目標股價維持在48美元。
The analyst says that for single-family REITs like AMH and INVH, strong demand driven by demographics, home affordability, and migratory trends is expected to lead to re-accelerating same-store revenue growth in 2025 and 2026 as competitive rental supply pressures ease.
這位分析師表示，隨着競爭性租金供應壓力的緩解，對於像AMH和INVH這樣的單戶房地產投資信託基金，受人口統計、房屋負擔能力和移民趨勢推動的強勁需求預計將導致2025年和2026年同店收入增長重新加速。
In particular, the analyst expects AMH and INVH to experience the highest same-store revenue growth among their covered stocks in 2025. Additionally, Blouin says that AMH's upcoming development projects will enable the company to achieve superior external growth.
分析師特別預計，到2025年，AMH和INVH的同店收入增長將是其承保股票中最高的。此外，布勞因表示，AMH即將推出的開發項目將使該公司能夠實現卓越的外部增長。
On the other hand, Blouin started coverage at a Neutral rating on Camden Property Trust (NYSE:CPT), Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR), and Essex Property Trust, Inc. (NYSE:ESS), with a price target of $139, $81 and $318, respectively.
另一方面，布勞因開始對卡姆登房地產信託（紐約證券交易所代碼：CPT）、股票住宅（紐約證券交易所代碼：EQR）和埃塞克斯房地產信託公司（紐約證券交易所代碼：ESS）進行中性評級，目標股價分別爲139美元、81美元和318美元。
The analyst expects rent growth in ESS's markets to stay strong, driven by improving migration trends in the company's suburban areas (~60% of exposure based on GS estimates, 47% per CoStar).
該分析師預計，受公司郊區移民趨勢改善的推動，ESS市場的租金增長將保持強勁（根據GS的估計，約佔敞口的60％，根據CoStar的47％）。
However, they anticipate that EQR to encounter a significant supply challenge in its urban submarkets.
但是，他們預計EQR將在其城市子市場中遇到重大的供應挑戰。
Apart from this, the analyst initiated coverage on UDR, Inc. (NYSE:UDR) at a Sell rating, with a price target of $42.
除此之外，該分析師以賣出評級開始對UDR, Inc.（紐約證券交易所代碼：UDR）進行報道，目標股價爲42美元。
For UDR, Blouin expects solid rent growth for UDR, driven by improving migration in suburban areas (~70% exposure per GS and UDR's estimates, ~50% according to CoStar). This will be partially offset by outmigration from urban areas (~30% of the portfolio).
對於UDR，布勞因預計，在郊區移民人數增加的推動下，UDR的租金將穩步增長（根據CoStar的數據，每個GS的風險敞口約爲70％，UDR的估計約爲50％）。這將被來自城市地區的向外移民（約佔投資組合的30％）部分抵消。
Also, same-store expense growth is projected to be in the low 4% range, about 100 basis points above consensus, adds the analyst.
此外，分析師補充說，預計同店支出增長將在4％的低區間內，比市場預期高出約100個點子。
Overall, the analyst writes that in residential REIT sector, declining supply is creating a favorable growth environment. For Sunbelt multifamily REITs, while suburban migration is moderating, Blouin anticipates a sharper decline in supply, which will drive accelerating same-store revenue growth.
總體而言，分析師寫道，在住宅房地產投資信託基金領域，供應下降正在創造有利的增長環境。對於Sunbelt多戶住宅房地產投資信託基金，儘管郊區移民人數有所緩和，但布勞因預計供應將急劇下降，這將推動同店收入加速增長。
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