SFC Holdings' (SZSE:301558) Shareholders Have More To Worry About Than Only Soft Earnings
SFC Holdings' (SZSE:301558) Shareholders Have More To Worry About Than Only Soft Earnings
The subdued market reaction suggests that SFC Holdings Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:301558) recent earnings didn't contain any surprises. However, we believe that investors should be aware of some underlying factors which may be of concern.
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Zooming In On SFC Holdings' Earnings
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
SFC Holdings has an accrual ratio of 0.27 for the year to June 2024. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow fell significantly short of its reported profits. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of CN¥52m, which is significantly less than its profit of CN¥87.6m. SFC Holdings shareholders will no doubt be hoping that its free cash flow bounces back next year, since it was down over the last twelve months. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio. One positive for SFC Holdings shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of SFC Holdings.
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
Unfortunately (in the short term) SFC Holdings saw its profit reduced by unusual items worth CN¥11m. In the case where this was a non-cash charge it would have made it easier to have high cash conversion, so it's surprising that the accrual ratio tells a different story. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect SFC Holdings to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal.
Our Take On SFC Holdings' Profit Performance
SFC Holdings saw unusual items weigh on its profit, which should have made it easier to show high cash conversion, which it did not do, according to its accrual ratio. Based on these factors, we think it's very unlikely that SFC Holdings' statutory profits make it seem much weaker than it is. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. For example, we've found that SFC Holdings has 4 warning signs (3 make us uncomfortable!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, as a guide to a business. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.