Need To Know: Analysts Just Made A Substantial Cut To Their China Yongda Automobiles Services Holdings Limited (HKG:3669) Estimates
Need To Know: Analysts Just Made A Substantial Cut To Their China Yongda Automobiles Services Holdings Limited (HKG:3669) Estimates
Today is shaping up negative for China Yongda Automobiles Services Holdings Limited (HKG:3669) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon. The stock price has risen 8.9% to HK$1.35 over the past week. Investors could be forgiven for changing their mind on the business following the downgrade; but it's not clear if the revised forecasts will lead to selling activity.
今天對中國永達汽車服務控股有限公司(HKG: 3669)的股東來說是負數,分析師對今年的預測進行了大幅的負面修正。收入和每股收益(EPS)的預測均向下修正,分析師認爲灰雲即將出現。過去一週,股價上漲8.9%,至1.35港元。投資者在降級後改變對業務的看法是可以原諒的;但目前尚不清楚修訂後的預測是否會導致拋售活動。
After the downgrade, the consensus from China Yongda Automobiles Services Holdings' 17 analysts is for revenues of CN¥64b in 2024, which would reflect a noticeable 5.3% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to reduce 9.3% to CN¥0.13 in the same period. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥72b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.31 in 2024. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about China Yongda Automobiles Services Holdings' prospects, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.
降級後,中國永達汽車服務控股的17位分析師一致認爲,2024年的收入爲640元人民幣,這將反映出與去年業績相比銷售額明顯下降5.3%。同期,法定每股收益預計將減少9.3%,至0.13元人民幣。在本次更新之前,分析師一直預測2024年的收入爲720元人民幣,每股收益(EPS)爲0.31元人民幣。事實上,我們可以看出,分析師對中國永達汽車服務控股的前景更加悲觀,他們認爲收入預期大幅下降,並下調了每股收益預期。
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The consensus price target fell 17% to CN¥2.15, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading analyst valuation estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic China Yongda Automobiles Services Holdings analyst has a price target of CN¥6.21 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥0.93. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely differing views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be possible to derive much meaning from the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
共識目標股價下跌17%,至2.15元人民幣,疲軟的盈利前景顯然領先於分析師的估值預期。研究分析師的估計範圍,評估異常值與平均值的差異程度也可能很有啓發性。最樂觀的中國永達汽車服務控股分析師將目標股價定爲每股6.21元人民幣,而最悲觀的分析師則將其估值爲0.93元人民幣。因此,在這種情況下,我們不會對分析師的目標股價給予過多的可信度,因爲對於該業務可以產生什麼樣的業績,顯然存在一些截然不同的看法。因此,可能無法從共識目標股價中得出太多意義,畢竟共識目標股價只是如此廣泛的估計值的平均值。
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the China Yongda Automobiles Services Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 10% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 3.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.9% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - China Yongda Automobiles Services Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.
這些估計很有趣,但是在查看預測與中國永達汽車服務控股公司過去的表現以及與同一行業的同行進行比較時,可以更粗略地描述一些細節。我們要強調的是,預計銷售將逆轉,預計到2024年底,年化收入將下降10%。與過去五年3.2%的歷史增長相比,這是一個顯著的變化。相比之下,我們的數據表明,在可預見的將來,預計同一行業的其他公司(有分析師報道)的收入每年將增長9.9%。因此,儘管預計其收入將萎縮,但這種陰雲並沒有帶來一線希望——預計中國永達汽車服務控股將落後於整個行業。
The Bottom Line
底線
The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that China Yongda Automobiles Services Holdings' revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. With a serious cut to this year's expectations and a falling price target, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were becoming wary of China Yongda Automobiles Services Holdings.
要了解的最重要的一點是,分析師下調了每股收益預期,預計業務狀況將明顯下降。不幸的是,分析師也下調了收入預期,行業數據表明,預計中國永達汽車服務控股公司的收入增長將低於整個市場。隨着今年的預期大幅下調和目標股價的下降,如果投資者對中國永達汽車服務控股持謹慎態度,我們也不會感到驚訝。
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for China Yongda Automobiles Services Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
儘管如此,該業務的長期前景比明年的收益更爲重要。在Simply Wall St,我們有分析師對中國永達汽車服務控股公司到2026年的全方位估計,你可以在我們的平台上免費看到這些估計。
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.
當然,看到公司管理層在股票上投入大量資金可能與了解分析師是否在下調其預期一樣有用。因此,您可能還希望搜索這份內部所有權較高的免費股票清單。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。