BlackRock Strategist On Market Jitters: Expect Volatility, But Stay Positive On US Equities And This Emerging Market
BlackRock Strategist On Market Jitters: Expect Volatility, But Stay Positive On US Equities And This Emerging Market
Investors, brace yourselves for the rollercoaster that is September and October. But before hitting the panic button, BlackRock managing director Gargi Pal Chaudhuri offers reassurance, urging that investors not be alarmed by near-term volatility in U.S. equity markets.
投資者們,爲九月和十月的過山車做好準備。但是在驚慌失措之前,貝萊德董事總經理Gargi Pal Chaudhuri提供了保證,敦促投資者不要對美國股市的短期波動感到震驚。
In a recent CNBC interview, Chaudhuri — Head of BlackRock's iShares Investment Strategy-Americas — emphasized that whether it's small-cap stocks, large-caps, or the tech sector, "these months tend to be seasonally volatile, a trend observed over the past decade."
在最近接受CNBC採訪時,貝萊德iShares投資策略美洲負責人喬杜裏強調,無論是小盤股、大盤股還是科技板塊,「這些月往往是季節性波動的,這是過去十年來觀察到的趨勢。」
We looked into the past trend for validation.
我們研究了過去的趨勢以進行驗證。
Seasonal Market Swings: A Recurring Phenomenon
季節性市場波動:反覆出現的現象
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240905/0-5c8c2dbcf9ab95cc52b02e0bcb11204a-0-24109f6dd5a1aa1a0e0f1a2e6dcc170b.png/big)
Above is the graph of the CBOE Volatility Index, also known as, VIX — over the past decade. It can be observed, that the index tends to gain strength during these two months Chaudhuri mentioned (taking into account that the extremely high wave in 2020 is accountable to Covid).
上圖是過去十年來芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數(也稱爲VIX)的圖表。可以看出,在喬杜裏提到的這兩個月中,該指數往往會走強(考慮到2020年的極高浪潮是由Covid造成的)。
Investors who track market volatility often tend to book gains through its swings via ETFs such as the iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX) or the ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (NYSE:VIXY)
追蹤市場波動的投資者通常傾向於通過交易所買賣基金(例如iPath b系列標普500指數VIX短期期貨ETN(紐約證券交易所代碼:VXX)或ProShares VIX短期期貨ETF(紐約證券交易所代碼:VIXY)等ETF通過波動來獲得收益
Chaudhuri also mentioned that this year, the uncertainty around the upcoming U.S. election adds to the already jittery markets, creating more potential for fluctuations.
喬杜裏還提到,今年,圍繞即將到來的美國大選的不確定性加劇了本已緊張不安的市場,從而創造了更大的波動可能性。
Read Also: Institutional Investors Buy The Dip After August Volatility Spike: Wall Street Analyst
另請閱讀:華爾街分析師:機構投資者在8月波動率飆升後逢低買入
Medium- To Long-Term? Still Bright
中期到長期?還很亮
Despite the near-term uncertainty, Chaudhuri remains upbeat about the medium- to long-term outlook for U.S. equities. She believes high-quality stocks are poised to perform well over the next six to twelve months, especially as the Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting interest rates.
儘管短期內存在不確定性,但喬杜裏對美國股市的中長期前景仍然持樂觀態度。她認爲,高質量股票有望在未來六到十二個月內表現良好,尤其是在預計聯儲局將開始減息的情況下。
Chaudhuri stated, "Historically, rate cuts have benefited both stocks and bonds," adding that she expects the Fed to start normalizing interest rates later this month with a 25-basis point cut.
喬杜裏表示:「從歷史上看,減息使股票和債券都受益。」 她補充說,她預計聯儲局將在本月晚些時候開始實現利率正常化,下調25個點子。
India: The Emerging Market Opportunity
印度:新興市場的機會
But Chaudhuri's focus isn't solely on the U.S. With India's growing influence on the global stage, she believes foreign investors should reconsider their current underweight positions.
但是喬杜裏關注的不僅僅是美國。隨着印度在全球舞臺上的影響力越來越大,她認爲外國投資者應該重新考慮他們目前的減持頭寸。
"I think investors need to at least get back to benchmark weights with respect to emerging markets (EMs) and with respect to India specifically. And I think that is the opportunity," she said.
「我認爲投資者至少需要恢復新興市場(EM)的基準權重,特別是印度的基準權重。我認爲這是機會,」 她說。
While India's market valuations are on the higher end, Chaudhuri noted that "this is not just about valuations." India's economic potential and its increasing importance make it a key area for future growth.
儘管印度的市場估值處於較高水平,但喬杜裏指出,「這不僅僅是估值的問題。」印度的經濟潛力及其日益增長的重要性使其成爲未來增長的關鍵領域。
Popular ETFs tracking Indian equity include the iShares MSCI India ETF (NYSE:INDA), the WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (NYSE:EPI) and the Franklin FTSE India ETF (NYSE:FLIN)
追蹤印度股票的熱門ETF包括iShares MSCI印度ETF(紐約證券交易所代碼:INDA)、WisdomTree印度收益基金(紐約證券交易所代碼:EPI)和富蘭克林富時印度ETF(紐約證券交易所代碼:FLIN)
Overall, Chaudhuri's message is clear: ride out the short-term volatility and stay focused on the long-term opportunities.
總體而言,喬杜裏傳達的信息很明確:擺脫短期波動,專注於長期機會。
- From Stocks To Bonds: CBOE's VIXTLT Index Adds New Twist To Volatility
- 從股票到債券:芝加哥期權交易所的VixTLT指數爲波動性增添了新的變化