We Think That There Are More Issues For Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials (SZSE:301238) Than Just Sluggish Earnings
We Think That There Are More Issues For Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials (SZSE:301238) Than Just Sluggish Earnings
A lackluster earnings announcement from Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301238) last week didn't sink the stock price. However, we believe that investors should be aware of some underlying factors which may be of concern.
江蘇瑞泰新能源材料有限公司(深圳證券交易所代碼:301238)上週公佈的業績乏善可陳,但並未使股價下跌。但是,我們認爲,投資者應注意一些可能令人擔憂的潛在因素。
Examining Cashflow Against Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials' Earnings
根據江蘇瑞泰新能源材料的收益研究現金流
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
在高級財務中,用於衡量公司將報告的利潤轉化爲自由現金流(FCF)的關鍵比率是應計比率(來自現金流)。簡而言之,該比率從淨利潤中減去FCF,然後將該數字除以該時期公司的平均運營資產。該比率向我們顯示了公司的利潤超過其FCF的程度。
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
因此,當公司的應計比率爲負時,這實際上被認爲是一件好事,但如果其應計比率爲正,則是一件壞事。雖然應計比率高於零並不令人擔憂,但我們確實認爲,當公司的應計比率相對較高時,值得注意。值得注意的是,有一些學術證據表明,總的來說,高應計率對短期利潤來說是個壞兆頭。
Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials has an accrual ratio of 0.37 for the year to June 2024. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of CN¥762m despite its profit of CN¥294.0m, mentioned above. We saw that FCF was CN¥607m a year ago though, so Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part. The good news for shareholders is that Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials' accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.
截至2024年6月的一年中,江蘇瑞泰新能源材料的應計比率爲0.37。通常,這對未來的盈利能力來說是個壞兆頭。換句話說,該公司在那段時間內沒有產生一點自由現金流。在過去的十二個月中,它的自由現金流實際上爲負數,儘管如上所述,其利潤爲29400萬元人民幣,但流出量仍爲76200萬元人民幣。但是,我們看到一年前的FCF爲60700萬元人民幣,因此江蘇瑞泰新能源材料過去至少能夠產生正FCF。話雖如此,故事還有更多。應計比率至少部分反映了不尋常項目對法定利潤的影響。對股東來說,好消息是,江蘇瑞泰新能源材料去年的應計比率要好得多,因此今年的糟糕數據可能只是利潤與FCF之間短期不匹配的情況。如果確實如此,股東應尋求在本年度的現金流相對於利潤的改善。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials.
注意:我們始終建議投資者檢查資產負債表的實力。點擊此處查看我們對江蘇瑞泰新能源材料的資產負債表分析。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
不尋常的物品如何影響利潤?
Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials' profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥25m in the last twelve months. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. If Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.
考慮到應計比率,在過去的十二個月中,價值2500萬元人民幣的不尋常物品提振了江蘇瑞泰新能源材料的利潤也就不足爲奇了。我們不能否認更高的利潤通常會讓我們感到樂觀,但如果利潤是可持續的,我們更願意這樣做。當我們計算數千家上市公司的數字時,我們發現,特定年份中不尋常的項目所帶來的提振通常不會在第二年重演。考慮到這個名字,這並不奇怪。如果江蘇瑞泰新能源材料不認爲這種貢獻重演,那麼在其他條件相同的情況下,我們預計其本年度的利潤將下降。
Our Take On Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials' Profit Performance
我們對江蘇瑞泰新能源材料盈利表現的看法
Summing up, Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials' statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials you should be mindful of and 1 of these is a bit concerning.
總而言之,江蘇瑞泰新能源材料從不尋常的項目中獲得了不錯的利潤提振,但其紙面利潤無法與自由現金流相提並論。出於上述原因,我們認爲,敷衍地看一眼江蘇瑞泰新能源材料的法定利潤,可能會使其看起來比實際水平要好。因此,如果你想更深入地研究這隻股票,那麼考慮它面臨的任何風險至關重要。一個很好的例子:我們發現了江蘇瑞泰新能源材料的兩個警告信號,你應該注意其中一個警示標誌,其中一個有點令人擔憂。
Our examination of Jiangsu Ruitai New Energy Materials has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
我們對江蘇瑞泰新能源材料的審查側重於某些可能使其收益看起來好於實際的因素。而且,在此基礎上,我們有些懷疑。但是,還有很多其他方法可以讓你對公司的看法。例如,許多人認爲高股本回報率是有利的商業經濟的標誌,而另一些人則喜歡 「關注資金」,尋找內部人士正在買入的股票。因此,你可能希望看到這份擁有高股本回報率的公司的免費集合,或者這份內部所有權高的股票清單。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。