Some May Be Optimistic About Lapco Holdings' (HKG:8472) Earnings
Some May Be Optimistic About Lapco Holdings' (HKG:8472) Earnings
The market for Lapco Holdings Limited's (HKG:8472) shares didn't move much after it posted weak earnings recently. Our analysis suggests that while the profits are soft, the foundations of the business are strong.
Lapco Holdings Limited(HKG: 8472)在最近公佈疲軟的收益後,其股票市場沒有太大波動。我們的分析表明,儘管利潤疲軟,但業務基礎卻很牢固。
A Closer Look At Lapco Holdings' Earnings
仔細看看Lapco Holdings的收益
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
在高級財務中,用於衡量公司將報告的利潤轉化爲自由現金流(FCF)的關鍵比率是應計比率(來自現金流)。簡而言之,該比率從淨利潤中減去FCF,然後將該數字除以該時期公司的平均運營資產。該比率向我們顯示了公司的利潤超過其FCF的程度。
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
這意味着負應計比率是一件好事,因爲它表明該公司帶來的自由現金流超出了其利潤所暗示的範圍。這並不意味着我們應該擔心應計比率爲正,但值得注意的是,應計比率相當高的地方。引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年發表的一篇論文,「應計額較高的公司未來的利潤往往會降低」。
Lapco Holdings has an accrual ratio of -0.48 for the year to June 2024. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. In fact, it had free cash flow of HK$62m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of HK$13.2m. Lapco Holdings did see its free cash flow drop year on year, which is less than ideal, like a Simpson's episode without Groundskeeper Willie. Having said that, there is more to consider. We must also consider the impact of unusual items on statutory profit (and thus the accrual ratio), as well as note the ramifications of the company issuing new shares.
截至2024年6月的一年中,Lapco Holdings的應計比率爲-0.48。因此,其法定收入大大低於其自由現金流。實際上,它去年的自由現金流爲6200萬港元,遠遠超過其1320萬港元的法定利潤。Lapco Holdings的自由現金流確實同比下降,這並不理想,就像辛普森沒有場地管理員威利的劇集一樣。話雖如此,還有更多需要考慮的地方。我們還必須考慮不尋常項目對法定利潤(以及應計比率)的影響,並注意公司發行新股的後果。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Lapco Holdings.
注意:我們始終建議投資者檢查資產負債表的實力。點擊此處查看我們對Lapco Holdings的資產負債表分析。
In order to understand the potential for per share returns, it is essential to consider how much a company is diluting shareholders. As it happens, Lapco Holdings issued 300% more new shares over the last year. Therefore, each share now receives a smaller portion of profit. To celebrate net income while ignoring dilution is like rejoicing because you have a single slice of a larger pizza, but ignoring the fact that the pizza is now cut into many more slices. Check out Lapco Holdings' historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.
爲了了解每股回報的可能性,必須考慮公司在多大程度上稀釋了股東。碰巧的是,Lapco Holdings發行的新股比去年增加了300%。因此,每股現在獲得的利潤比例較小。在慶祝淨收入的同時忽略稀釋就像歡欣鼓舞,因爲你只有一片更大的披薩,但卻忽略了披薩現在被切成更多片的事實。點擊此鏈接,查看Lapco Holdings的歷史每股收益增長。
A Look At The Impact Of Lapco Holdings' Dilution On Its Earnings Per Share (EPS)
看看Lapco Holdings的稀釋對其每股收益(EPS)的影響
Unfortunately, Lapco Holdings' profit is down 30% per year over three years. Even looking at the last year, profit was still down 29%. Sadly, earnings per share fell further, down a full 100% in that time. And so, you can see quite clearly that dilution is having a rather significant impact on shareholders.
不幸的是,Lapco Holdings的利潤在三年內每年下降30%。即使從去年來看,利潤仍下降了29%。遺憾的是,每股收益進一步下降,同期下降了整整100%。因此,你可以清楚地看到,稀釋對股東產生了相當大的影響。
In the long term, if Lapco Holdings' earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.
從長遠來看,如果Lapco Holdings的每股收益能夠增加,那麼股價也應該增加。但是,如果其利潤增加而每股收益保持不變(甚至下降),那麼股東可能看不到太多好處。對於普通零售股東來說,每股收益是檢查您假設的公司利潤 「份額」 的好方法。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
不尋常的物品如何影響利潤?
Lapco Holdings' profit was reduced by unusual items worth HK$2.5m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. In a scenario where those unusual items included non-cash charges, we'd expect to see a strong accrual ratio, which is exactly what has happened in this case. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. If Lapco Holdings doesn't see those unusual expenses repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to increase over the coming year.
在過去的十二個月中,Lapco Holdings的利潤因價值250萬港元的不尋常項目而減少,這有助於其實現高現金轉化率,其不尋常的項目就反映了這一點。在這些不尋常的項目包括非現金費用的情況下,我們預計會看到強勁的應計比率,而這正是本案中發生的情況。儘管由於不尋常項目而產生的扣除首先令人失望,但有一線希望。當我們分析全球絕大多數上市公司時,我們發現重大不尋常的事項往往不會重演。而且,畢竟,這正是會計術語的含義。如果Lapco Holdings沒有看到這些不尋常的支出重演,那麼在其他條件相同的情況下,我們預計其利潤將在來年增加。
Our Take On Lapco Holdings' Profit Performance
我們對Lapco Holdings利潤表現的看法
Summing up, Lapco Holdings' accrual ratio and its unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings were temporarily depressed (and could bounce back), while the dilution is a negative for shareholders. Looking at all these factors, we'd say that Lapco Holdings' underlying earnings power is at least as good as the statutory numbers would make it seem. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example, we've found that Lapco Holdings has 3 warning signs (2 are potentially serious!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.
總而言之,Lapco Holdings的應計比率及其不尋常的項目表明,其法定收益暫時受到抑制(並可能反彈),而稀釋對股東來說是負數。從所有這些因素來看,我們可以說Lapco Holdings的基礎盈利能力至少與法定數字所顯示的一樣好。考慮到這一點,除非我們對風險有透徹的了解,否則我們不會考慮投資股票。例如,我們發現 Lapco Holdings 有 3 個警告信號(2 個可能很嚴重!)在進行進一步分析之前,這值得你注意。
Our examination of Lapco Holdings has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And it has passed with flying colours. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
我們對Lapco Holdings的審查側重於某些可能使其收益看起來好於實際的因素。而且它已經以優異的成績過去了。但是,還有很多其他方法可以讓你對公司的看法。例如,許多人認爲高股本回報率是有利的商業經濟的標誌,而另一些人則喜歡 「關注資金」,尋找內部人士正在買入的股票。雖然可能需要你進行一些研究,但你可能會發現這份免費收集的擁有高股本回報率的公司,或者這份擁有大量內幕持股的股票清單很有用。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。