The $CommBank (CBA.AU)$ share price continues to push higher in 2024. In an awe-inspiring effort, the stock is up 298% this year to date and isn't showing any signs of slowing.
It is up 15% in the past month alone and is swapping hands at $143.75 apiece at publication on Friday afternoon.
The momentum also follows Commonwealth Bank's strong FY24 result, and many investors are wondering whether its share price can keep climbing.
Some analysts are bullish on the stock. Let's take a closer look.
Lending growth fuelling CBA share price
One key driver behind the CBA share price rise is lending growth. The bank lent $39 billion to businesses over the twelve months to FY24 and provided home financing to around 120,000 households.
In total, new fundings were up $10 billion over the year. This fits with the industry-wide trend.
The latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that new loan commitments rose modestly in July 2024.
Housing loan commitments increased by 3.9%, while business construction loans climbed by 3.8%. Meanwhile, personal fixed-term loans also saw a rise of 2.2%.
According to Philip Pepe, Senior Equities Analyst at Shaw and Partners, there is a strong correlation between lending growth and the performance of Australian bank share prices.
He notes that more than half of Aussie bank share price growth is tied to the volume of loans.
My [basic] analysis shows that the share price performance of Australian banks is circa 65-70% correlated with the growth/volume of loans.
It appears that regardless of many sell-side analysts calling the Australian banks expensive, lending growth probably means share price growth. And if/when we do eventually get interest rate reductions in Australia, that may further fuel lending growth and perhaps also drive bank share prices even higher.
Whilst Pepe didn't tie this to Commonwealth Bank directly, with lending on the rise, it's no surprise the CBA share price is following suit.
Analyst opinions
So what is the opinion on CBA at this point in time? Well, despite the bank's strong performance, not all analysts are convinced that the CBA share price can sustain its current levels.
Some brokers have voiced concerns about CBA being overvalued. Morgans is bearish, with a price target of $97.38 apiece.
This is an eye-watering 32% decline if the broker is correct.
Those at Morgan Stanley are also bearish, setting a price target on the CBA share price of $103.
But Goldman Sachs remains the most bearish. The broker rates Commonwealth Bank a sell, with an even lower price target of $94.80, which suggests a potential downside of 34%.
Goldman also raised concerns about CBA's valuation, which could impact investment returns moving forward.
Foolish takeaway
The CBA share price has been on an impressive run this year, but opinions remain divided about its future trajectory.
Some analysts see risks and potential downside, but others highlight the industry's growth in lending as a key tailwind.
The stock is up 42% in the past 12 months.
澳大利亞聯邦銀行 (ASX: CBA) 的股價在2024年繼續上漲。該股今年迄今已上漲298%,沒有任何放緩的跡象,這是一項令人敬畏的努力。
僅在過去一個月中,它就上漲了15%,並在週五下午發佈時以每股143.75美元的價格互換。
這種勢頭也是在聯邦銀行公佈了強勁的24財年業績之後出現的,許多投資者想知道其股價能否繼續攀升。
一些分析師看好該股。讓我們仔細看看。
貸款增長推動了CBA股價
CBA股價上漲背後的一個關鍵驅動因素是貸款增長。在截至24財年的十二個月中,該銀行向企業貸款了390億美元,併爲約12萬個家庭提供了住房融資。
全年新增資金總額增加了100億美元。這符合整個行業的趨勢。
澳大利亞統計局(ABS)的最新數據顯示,2024年7月新的貸款承諾略有增加。
住房貸款承諾增加了3.9%,而商業建設貸款增長了3.8%。同時,個人定期貸款也增長了2.2%。
Shaw and Partners高級股票分析師菲利普·佩佩表示,貸款增長與澳大利亞銀行股價表現之間存在很強的相關性。
他指出,澳大利亞銀行股價增長的一半以上與貸款量有關。
我的 [基本] 分析表明,澳大利亞銀行的股價表現與貸款的增長/數量的相關性約爲65-70%。
看來,儘管有許多賣方分析師稱澳大利亞銀行價格昂貴,但貸款增長可能意味着股價的增長。而且,如果/當我們最終降低澳大利亞的利率時,這可能會進一步推動貸款增長,也可能推動銀行股價進一步上漲。
儘管佩佩沒有將其直接與聯邦銀行掛鉤,貸款呈上升趨勢,但CBA股價緊隨其後也就不足爲奇了。
分析師觀點
那麼現在對CBA有什麼看法呢?好吧,儘管該銀行表現強勁,但並非所有分析師都相信CBA的股價可以維持目前的水平。
一些經紀商對CBA被高估表示擔憂。摩根看跌,目標股價爲每股97.38美元。
如果經紀商是正確的,則跌幅爲32%,令人眼花繚亂。
摩根士丹利的股價也看跌,將CBA股價的目標股價定爲103美元。
但高盛仍然是最看跌的。該經紀商將聯邦銀行評爲賣出,目標股價甚至更低,爲94.80美元,這表明潛在的下行空間爲34%。
高盛還對CBA的估值表示擔憂,這可能會影響未來的投資回報。
愚蠢的外賣
今年CBA的股價表現令人印象深刻,但對其未來走勢的看法仍然存在分歧。
一些分析師認爲風險和潛在的下行空間,但另一些分析師則強調該行業的貸款增長是關鍵的利好因素。
該股在過去12個月中上漲了42%。