The 'Great Wait' Economy: Jobs Data Paints Unique Picture, Analyst Says
The 'Great Wait' Economy: Jobs Data Paints Unique Picture, Analyst Says
It is usually considered good news when businesses are hiring instead of firing, but they aren't doing either, according to an analyst.
一位分析師表示,當企業招聘而不是解僱時,這通常被視爲好消息,但他們也沒有這樣做。
"We're stuck in the 'great wait' economy," Callie Cox, chief marketing strategist with Ritholtz Wealth Management, wrote on X on Monday.
Ritholtz Wealth Management首席營銷策略師卡莉·考克斯週一在X上寫道:「我們陷入了'等待'的經濟中。」
"Companies aren't hiring or firing. People aren't leaving their jobs or making big financial decisions."
「公司沒有招聘或解僱。人們不會離職,也不會做出重大財務決策。」
Cox wrote in her newsletter "Optimist Callie" that only 2% of American workers have quit their jobs, while 81% of workers aged 25 to 54 years old have a job.
考克斯在她的時事通訊《Optimist Callie》中寫道,只有2%的美國工人辭職,而在25至54歲的工人中,有81%有工作。
"We seem to be at the point where rates are high enough and the economic outlook is dour enough that both average Americans and corporate America have decided to do nothing," she said.
她說:「我們似乎正處於利率足夠高、經濟前景黯淡的地步,以至於普通美國人和美國企業都決定什麼都不做。」
Unemployment fell from 4.3% in July to 4.2% in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. Inflation is at 2.5% as the Federal Reserve is expected to the key interest rate ranging from 5.25% to 5.5% by either 25 or 50 basis points when in meets on Sept. 18.
美國勞工統計局週五報告稱,失業率從7月份的4.3%下降到8月份的4.2%。通貨膨脹率爲2.5%,因爲預計聯儲局將在9月18日的會議上將關鍵利率從5.25%到5.5%上調25或50個點子。
"This particular economic state isn't necessarily bad," Cox said.
考克斯說:「這種特殊的經濟狀況不一定很糟糕。」
Read Also: Job Creation Falls Short Of Expectations In August, Unemployment Rate Ticks Lower, Wage Growth Soars
另請閱讀:8月份創造的就業機會低於預期,失業率下降,工資增長飆升
"It's not the desperate penny-pinching or job-slashing you typically see in a recession. People are still employed and earning money at a pace noticeably faster than inflation."
「這不是你在經濟衰退中通常看到的絕望的緊縮一分錢或裁員。人們仍然在工作,賺錢的速度明顯快於通貨膨脹。」
She said employers are finding ways to do more with the workers that they have, and the Fed believes rates need to be two percentage points lower than they are now to entice consumers to spend and businesses to hire.
她說,僱主正在想辦法讓現有員工做更多的事情,聯儲局認爲,利率需要比現在低兩個百分點才能吸引消費者消費,吸引企業招聘。
"How low rates need to go to pull America out of the great wait?" she wrote.
「需要降低多低的利率才能使美國擺脫漫長的等待狀態?」她寫道。
"Three percentage points of cuts would get us to the point where the current Fed funds rate is in line with price growth, as measured by personal consumption expenditures data."
「根據個人消費支出數據衡量,削減三個百分點將使我們達到目前的聯邦基金利率與物價增長一致的地步。」
She also noted homebuyers are waiting for mortgage rates to go expectedly lower, having fallen from 8% last October to 6.4% currently, possibly making the waiting game last longer.
她還指出,購房者正在等待抵押貸款利率的預期降低,已從去年10月的8%降至目前的6.4%,這可能會延長等待時間。
"We might be stuck in a vicious cycle, though. If enough of us delay big financial moves in hopes of lower rates down the road, we may never make it out of this rut," she said.
「但是,我們可能會陷入惡性循環。她說,如果我們當中有足夠多的人推遲重大金融舉措,以期在未來降低利率,那麼我們可能永遠無法擺脫這種困境。」
"For what it's worth, Wall Street seems sick of waiting. They've skipped straight to the recession, punishing every economic report that looks somewhat ominous."
「就其價值而言,華爾街似乎厭倦了等待。他們直接跳入了衰退,懲罰了所有看上去有些不祥的經濟報告。」
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