Long-Dated Treasury ETFs Hit Yearly Highs With August CPI Data Ahead: More 'Good News On Inflation' Expected
Long-Dated Treasury ETFs Hit Yearly Highs With August CPI Data Ahead: More 'Good News On Inflation' Expected
The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model projects similar results, with headline CPI at 2.56% year-over-year and core CPI at 3.21%.Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) investing in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds surged to their highest levels of the year as investors gear up for another benign inflation report due Wednesday.
隨着投資者爲週三發佈的另一份良性通脹報告做準備，投資美國長期國債的交易所交易基金（ETF）飆升至今年的最高水平。
The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) ended Monday's session at $99.99 per share, its highest closing price since December 2023.
廣受歡迎的iShares 20年期以上國債ETF（納斯達克股票代碼：TLT）週一收於每股99.99美元，爲2023年12月以來的最高收盤價。
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists are predicting a 0.2% month-over-month increase in both headline and core inflation, the latter of which excludes food and energy prices.
美國勞工統計局定於美國東部時間週三上午 8:30 發佈8月份的消費者物價指數（CPI）。經濟學家預測，總體通貨膨脹率和核心通貨膨脹率將同比增長0.2％，後者不包括食品和能源價格。
The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model projects similar results, with headline CPI at 2.56% year-over-year and core CPI at 3.21%.
克利夫蘭聯儲的通貨膨脹預報模型預測了類似的結果，總體消費者價格指數同比增長2.56％，核心消費者價格指數爲3.21％。
Ed Yardeni, a well-known Wall Street veteran, said, "August's CPI should continue to show progress in moderating inflation," adding that the expected print would mark the lowest headline inflation since February 2021.
華爾街知名資深人士埃德·亞爾德尼表示：「8月份的消費者價格指數應繼續在緩和通貨膨脹方面取得進展」，並補充說，預期的數據將標誌着自2021年2月以來的最低總體通貨膨脹率。
In a similar tone, Bank of America analysts predict that headline inflation will decline by 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% year-over-year, while core inflation is expected to hold at 3.2%.
美國銀行分析師以類似的基調預測，總體通貨膨脹率將同比下降0.3個百分點至2.6％，而核心通貨膨脹率預計將保持在3.2％。
"The August CPI report should continue the string of good news on inflation," the bank said in a recent note.
該銀行在最近的一份報告中表示：「8月份的消費者價格指數報告應延續有關通貨膨脹的一系列好消息。」
Key Data and Expectations Summary
關鍵數據和預期摘要
| Metric | August MoM (exp.) | August YoY (exp.) | July YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI | +0.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| Core CPI (ex-food and energy) | +0.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| 指標 | 八月媽媽（exp.） | 8月同比（過期） | 7月同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 標題 CPI | +0.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| 核心消費者價格指數（不包括食品和能源） | +0.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Speculation
聯儲局減息的猜測
Market participants are currently pricing in a 71% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September meeting, and a 29% chance of a larger 50-basis-point cut.
市場參與者目前認爲，在聯儲局9月會議上減息25個點子的可能性爲71％，進一步減息50個點子的可能性爲29％。
Recent comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams indicate that a 25bp rate cut remains the baseline expectation, but larger cuts could be on the table if economic data, particularly from the labor market, worsens.
聯儲局理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和紐約聯儲主席約翰·威廉姆斯最近的評論表明，25個點子的減息仍然是基準預期，但如果經濟數據，特別是來自勞動力市場的數據惡化，可能會出現更大規模的減息。
Waller, speaking at the University of Notre Dame, noted that the Fed could act "quickly and forcefully" if needed, and signaled openness to "front-loading cuts."
沃勒在聖母大學發表講話時指出，如果需要，聯儲局可以 「迅速而有力」 地採取行動，並表示對 「提前削減」 持開放態度。
Williams emphasized that the U.S. is "moving in the right direction" on inflation but warned, "we are not there yet on achieving 2% inflation."
威廉姆斯強調說，美國在通貨膨脹方面 「正朝着正確的方向前進」，但他警告說：「我們還沒有實現2％的通貨膨脹。」
Williams also highlighted that the labor market remains strong, with the unemployment rate still "relatively low by historical standards."
威廉姆斯還強調，勞動力市場仍然強勁，失業率仍然 「按歷史標準衡量相對較低」。
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