Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) is set for a significant boost in capital expenditure for its Transmission and Distribution (T&D) infrastructure, driven by a surge in power demand surpassing historical trends. The company's latest performance underscores the need for an increase in T&D investments under Regulatory Period 4 (RP4) to address the growing electricity requirements. CGS International Stock Broking House have reiterated an ADD recommendation for TNB, with a revised Sum-of-Parts (SOP) based target price of RM19.10.
Power demand in Malaysia has notably accelerated, with quarterly growth rates reaching between 3.2% and 9.6% year-on-year from 2Q23 to 2Q24. This marks a sharp increase from the historical growth rate of 1.2% over the previous five years. This robust growth is propelled by higher consumption in the commercial and residential sectors. The existing electricity supply agreements, including those with data centres, suggest an ongoing annual growth rate of 3.5% to 5% over the next several years. In light of these trends, the budgeted average annual T&D capex of RM7.5 billion under RP3 (2022-2024), aimed at supporting a 1.8% annual demand growth, now appears inadequate. Consequently, there is a strong case for increased T&D capex under RP4 (2025-2027), alongside an estimated RM35 billion investment required for energy transition.
GenCo's financial performance has also shown marked improvement. After six consecutive quarters of losses, the company reported a profit after tax (PAT) of RM399 million in 2Q24. This turnaround is attributed to operational enhancements and cost efficiencies. Analysts have adjusted their profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards by 3% to 9%, reflecting this improved performance. The target price for TNB has been raised to RM19.10, driven by an increase in long-term growth expectations from 1.5% to 2% due to the optimistic power demand outlook.
Despite a 47% rise in TNB's share price year-to-date, outperforming the KLCI by 29%, the stock remains undervalued. TNB's shares are currently trading at an adjusted 2025 EV/EBITDA of 7.3x, compared to the regional power sector average of 9.1x to 13.2x. This discount is deemed excessive given TNB's strong earnings profile, with over 70% of its income derived from its regulated T&D business and the positive impact of the National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR). Foreign shareholding in TNB has increased slightly but remains below previous highs, indicating room for further investment.
受超越歷史趨勢的電力需求激增的推動，Tenaga Nasional Berhad（TNB）將大幅增加其輸電和配電（T＆D）基礎設施的資本支出。該公司的最新業績突顯了在監管期4（RP4）下增加輸電投資的必要性，以滿足不斷增長的電力需求。CGS國際股票經紀公司重申了對TnB的ADD建議，修訂後的基於零件總和（SOP）的目標價格爲19.10令吉。
馬來西亞的電力需求顯著加速，從23年第二季度到24年第二季度，季度同比增長率達到3.2％至9.6％。這標誌着與過去五年1.2％的歷史增長率相比急劇上升。這種強勁的增長是由商業和住宅部門消費的增加推動的。現有的電力供應協議，包括數據中心的協議，表明未來幾年將持續保持3.5％至5％的年增長率。鑑於這些趨勢，RP3（2022-2024）下旨在支持1.8％的年需求增長的預算平均年度研發資本支出爲75令吉，現在似乎是不夠的。因此，根據RP4（2025-2027），有充分的理由增加研發資本支出，同時估計需要350令吉的能源轉型投資。
GenCo的財務業績也顯示出顯著改善。在連續六個季度的虧損之後，該公司報告了24年第二季度的稅後利潤（PAT）爲39900萬令吉。這種轉變歸因於運營的增強和成本效率。分析師已將2025年和2026年的利潤預測上調了3％至9％，這反映了業績的改善。由於樂觀的電力需求前景，長期增長預期從1.5％上調至2％，TnB的目標價格已上調至19.10令吉。
儘管今年迄今爲止，TNB的股價上漲了47％，比KLCI高出29％，但該股的估值仍被低估。TNB股票目前的交易價格調整後的2025年電動汽車/息稅折舊攤銷前利潤爲7.3倍，而該地區電力行業的平均水平爲9.1倍至13.2倍。鑑於TNB強勁的收益狀況，其70％以上的收入來自其受監管的T＆D業務以及國家能源轉型路線圖（NETR）的積極影響，這種折扣被認爲是過高的。外國在TnB的持股量略有增加，但仍低於先前的高點，這表明還有進一步投資的空間。
