Investors Three-year Losses Continue as Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical (SHSE:600618) Dips a Further 5.0% This Week, Earnings Continue to Decline
Investors Three-year Losses Continue as Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical (SHSE:600618) Dips a Further 5.0% This Week, Earnings Continue to Decline
The truth is that if you invest for long enough, you're going to end up with some losing stocks. But long term Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600618) shareholders have had a particularly rough ride in the last three year. So they might be feeling emotional about the 59% share price collapse, in that time. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 21% in the last 90 days. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 12% in the same period.
事實是,如果你投資足夠長的時間,你最終會有一些虧損的股票。但是,從長遠來看,上海氯鹼化工有限公司(SHSE: 600618)的股東在過去三年中經歷了特別艱難的經歷。因此,他們可能會對那段時間股價暴跌59%感到激動。股東們最近的表現更加艱難,股價在過去90天中下跌了21%。但這可能與疲軟的市場有關,同期市場下跌了12%。
If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.
如果說過去一週有意義的話,投資者對上海氯鹼化工的情緒並不樂觀,所以讓我們看看基本面和股價之間是否存在不匹配的情況。
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
雖然市場是一種強大的定價機制,但股價反映了投資者的情緒,而不僅僅是潛在的業務表現。評估公司情緒變化的一種有缺陷但合理的方法是將每股收益(EPS)與股價進行比較。
Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 9.7% per year, over the last three years. This reduction in EPS is slower than the 25% annual reduction in the share price. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past. This increased caution is also evident in the rather low P/E ratio, which is sitting at 10.32.
在過去三年中,上海氯鹼化工的每股收益複合下降幅度爲每年9.7%。每股收益的下降低於股價每年25%的降幅。因此,過去市場似乎對該業務過於自信。這種更加謹慎的態度也體現在相當低的市盈率上,該比率爲10.32。
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
您可以在下圖中看到 EPS 隨時間推移的變化(點擊圖表查看確切值)。
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
在買入或賣出股票之前,我們始終建議仔細研究歷史增長趨勢,可在此處查閱。
What About Dividends?
分紅呢?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical, it has a TSR of -55% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
重要的是要考慮任何給定股票的股東總回報率和股價回報率。儘管股價回報率僅反映股價的變化,但股東總回報率包括股息的價值(假設已進行再投資)以及任何折扣融資或分拆的收益。可以說,股東總回報率更全面地描述了股票產生的回報。就上海氯鹼化工而言,其過去三年的股東回報率爲-55%。這超過了我們之前提到的其股價回報率。這在很大程度上是其股息支付的結果!
A Different Perspective
不同的視角
While it's never nice to take a loss, Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 15% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 20%. Of course, the long term returns are far more important and the good news is that over five years, the stock has returned 1.3% for each year. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
儘管虧損從來都不是一件好事,但上海氯鹼化工的股東可以放心,包括股息在內,他們過去十二個月的15%虧損沒有20%左右的市場虧損那麼嚴重。當然,長期回報要重要得多,好消息是,在過去的五年中,該股每年的回報率爲1.3%。在最好的情況下,去年只是通往更光明未來之旅中的一個暫時階段。儘管市場狀況可能對股價產生的不同影響值得考慮,但還有其他因素更爲重要。例如,投資風險的幽靈無處不在。我們已經確定了上海氯鹼化工的一個警告信號,了解它們應該是您投資過程的一部分。
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
當然,通過尋找其他地方,你可能會找到一筆不錯的投資。因此,請看一下我們預計收益將增加的這份免費公司名單。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在中國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂嗎?請直接聯繫我們。或者,也可以發送電子郵件至編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。