Is Nvidia Stock a Buy Now?
Is Nvidia Stock a Buy Now?
Some market prognosticators would argue that, as Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock goes, so goes the artificial intelligence (AI) bull market. Wall Street rallied around Nvidia, thanks to its dominance in the AI chip market. It's the flagship company representing the emergence of large language models and other AI technology, which is arguably the largest technological leap forward since the internet started developing in the late 1990s.
一些市場預測人士認爲,如同Nvidia(納斯達克:NVDA)股票的走勢,人工智能(AI)牛市也會如此。華爾街對Nvidia的熱衷主要是因爲其在AI芯片市場的主導地位。它是代表大語言模型和其他AI技術的旗艦公司,可以說是自1990年代末互聯網開始發展以來最大的技術飛躍。
After soaring for most of the past two years, Nvidia's stock price has reversed course. The stock is down about 22% from its June 2024 high. Buying the dip on winning stocks has been a successful investing strategy for years. And to be honest, it's hard to imagine an AI future without Nvidia playing a significant role.
在過去兩年裏飆升後,Nvidia的股價出現了逆轉。其股價較2024年6月高點下跌了約22%。以買入贏家股票的低點爲策略多年來一直是成功的投資策略。老實說,很難想象沒有Nvidia扮演重要角色的AI未來。
However, you may want to consider these risks before buying the stock today.
然而,在購買該股票之前,您可能需要考慮這些風險。
Nvidia looks cheap, but perhaps it's for a reason
Nvidia看起來便宜,但也許有原因。
Nvidia's AI-friendly GPU chips have become the go-to choice for technology companies building large data centers to run powerful AI models. Approximately $26.3 billion of Nvidia's overall $30 billion in Q2 revenue was from its data center segment, so Nvidia has effectively become a pure play on AI chips. The good news is that data center revenue grew 154% year over year in Q2 and 16% from the prior quarter, a sign that chip demand remains strong.
Nvidia的支持AI的GPU芯片已成爲技術公司建立大型數據中心運行強大AI模型的首選。在第二季度263億美元的總收入中,約有300億美元來自Nvidia的數據中心業務,因此Nvidia已成爲純粹的AI芯片投資。好消息是,數據中心營收在第二季度同比增長了154%,環比增長了16%,表明芯片需求依然強勁。
Analysts now estimate Nvidia will earn $2.84 per share this year and $4 per share next year. Using next year's estimates, that prices Nvidia at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 26. If Nvidia grows earnings by 40% annually over the long term, as analysts believe it will, it's arguably a bargain now.
分析師目前預計Nvidia今年每股盈利2.84美元,明年將達到每股4美元。根據明年的預測,Nvidia的市盈率爲26倍。如果Nvidia的長期盈利年均增長40%,正如分析師們所認爲的,那麼現在可以說是個便宜貨了。
However, there's an argument that Nvidia's revenue, as impressive as it could wind up being, is risky enough that investors may want a tremendous margin of safety to buy the stock. A small handful of companies are propping up Nvidia's sales. Specifically, four companies make up 40% of Nvidia's total revenue. To make matters worse, all four of them — Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Amazon — have worked on developing their own custom AI chips.
然而,有人認爲,儘管Nvidia的收入可能令人印象深刻,但風險足以使投資者希望以較大的安全邊際購買該股票。其中只有少數幾家公司支撐着Nvidia的銷售額。具體而言,有四家公司佔Nvidia總收入的40%。更糟糕的是,這四家公司——微軟、Meta Platforms、Alphabet和亞馬遜——都在開發自己的定製人工智能芯片。
Margins could become a problem
利潤率可能成爲一個問題
These companies will not necessarily discontinue using Nvidia's chips entirely (though anything is possible). But Nvidia has enjoyed remarkable pricing power since the AI rush began early last year. AI became a race where speed to market became the priority.
這些公司不一定會完全停止使用Nvidia的芯片(儘管任何事情都有可能)。但自去年初AI熱潮開始以來,Nvidia一直享有非凡的定價權。AI成爲了一個速度至上的競賽。
There are signs that the AI market is slowly evolving. Investors have openly questioned whether big technology companies see the returns needed to justify all this data center spending.
有跡象表明AI市場正在緩慢演變。投資者公開質疑大型科技公司是否能獲得足夠的回報來證明所有這些數據中心支出的必要性。
Market research has indicated that traffic to ChatGPT, once the fastest-growing app in history, has dropped in recent months. Amazon's management noted in the company's Q2 earnings call that its AI customers want better value.
市場調研表明,ChatGPt的流量,曾是歷史上增長最快的應用程序之一,最近幾個月有所下降。亞馬遜管理層在公司Q2業績會上指出,其AI客戶希望獲得更高的價值。
Price didn't matter when AI was new, but it's starting to become a conversation. That could spell pricing pressure for Nvidia moving forward. The company may have to choose between sacrificing market share to competition or accepting lower margins to retain share.
當AI剛出現時,價格並不重要,但現在開始引起討論。這可能給Nvidia帶來定價壓力。公司可能不得不在犧牲市場份額給競爭對手或接受較低利潤率以保持份額之間做出選擇。
This year, Nvidia is guiding to gross margins in the mid-70s, so this is something to watch in 2025 and beyond. You can see that margins this high are well beyond anything before the pandemic:
今年,Nvidia預計2025年及以後的毛利率將達到中70%,因此這是2025年及以後需要關注的事項。你可以看到,這麼高的利潤率遠遠超出了疫情之前的任何水平:
NVDA Gross Profit Margin data by YCharts.
NVDA毛利潤率數據來源於YCharts。
It's tempting to ignore such a long-term concern, but remember that Nvidia only looks cheap because everyone expects stellar sales and profits years into the future. Margins reverting to long-term averages would be disastrous for investors.
忽視這種長期問題是很誘人的,但請記住,Nvidia之所以看起來便宜,是因爲每個人都期待未來數年的銷售和利潤都會很好。利潤率恢復到長期平均水平對投資者來說將是災難性的。
Is Nvidia stock a buy today?
今天英偉達股票值得買入嗎?
These concerns aren't to dissuade you from owning Nvidia. They are raised to keep you aware of the risks. As impressive as Nvidia's financials are today, they've been propped up by a few deep-pocketed customers throwing money at being the early AI winner. Nvidia could be the leading AI chip company 20 years from now, but sales and/or profit margins could also fizzle out and collapse the stock.
這些擔憂並不是要 dissuade 您擁有 Nvidia。它們的提出是爲了讓您意識到風險。儘管 Nvidia 的財務狀況今天非常令人印象深刻,但它們是由一些富有的客戶投入資金成爲早期的人工智能贏家。Nvidia 20 年後可能成爲領先的人工智能芯片公司,但銷售額和/或利潤率也可能下降並導致股價崩潰。
The tricky part is that both things could be true.
複雜的是這兩件事都可以是真的。
Long-term investors who would like to buy the stock on this dip should do so responsibly. Consider a dollar-cost averaging strategy to accumulate shares slowly. That way, volatility is more of an opportunity than a reason to stress. Nvidia could be a bumpy ride for the foreseeable future, even if it makes investors money in the long run.
希望在此回調時購買該股票的長期投資者應該負責任地購買。考慮採用固定金額定期購買策略慢慢積累股份。這樣,波動性更多是一個機會,而不是壓力的原因。即使 Nvidia 在長期內爲投資者賺錢,未來可見的未來仍可能是一段波折的旅程。