Dollar, Treasury Yields Rise As Small Caps Fall: August Inflation Crushes Odds Of 50-Point Fed Rate Cut
Dollar, Treasury Yields Rise As Small Caps Fall: August Inflation Crushes Odds Of 50-Point Fed Rate Cut
U.S. inflation in August hit its lowest annual rate since February 2021 at 2.5%, falling from 2.9% in July and below the expected 2.6%, yet the underlying story tells a more complicated tale.
美國8月份的通貨膨脹率觸及2021年2月以來的最低年率，爲2.5％，低於7月份的2.9％，低於預期的2.6％，但基本情況卻講述了一個更爲複雜的故事。
Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core inflation pressures remain stubborn at 3.2% as shelter costs surged at their fastest monthly pace since January 2024, fueling gains in the dollar and sending Treasury yields climbing.
除去波動的食品和能源價格，核心通脹壓力仍然居高不下，爲3.2％，原因是住房成本以2024年1月以來最快的月度速度飆升，推動了美元的上漲，使美國國債收益率攀升。
Expectations for a hefty 50-basis-point rate cut at the Sept. 18 FOMC meeting plummeted to just 15%, down from 34% a day earlier, as per CME Group's FedWatch tool.
芝加哥商品交易所集團的聯邦觀察工具顯示，9月18日聯邦公開市場委員會會議上大幅減息50個點子的預期從前一天的34％跌至僅15％。
Traders now increasingly anticipate a more measured 25-basis-point cut, as sticky core inflation—particularly in services—remains a key factor under close watch by the Fed.
由於粘性核心通貨膨脹——尤其是服務業——仍然是聯儲局密切關注的關鍵因素，交易員現在越來越多地預計將下調25個點子。
Energy goods and services indices saw notable monthly drops, helping to ease overall price pressures. Gasoline prices fell 0.6% month-over-month in August after holding steady in July, while electricity declined 0.7% and utility bills for piped gas services dropped 1.9%.
能源商品和服務指數月度顯著下降，這有助於緩解整體價格壓力。汽油價格在7月份保持穩定之後，8月份同比下降了0.6％，而電力下降了0.7％，管道天然氣服務的公用事業賬單下降了1.9％。
Market Reactions
市場反應
The mixed August inflation report and the corresponding drop in investor expectation for a larger rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the September meeting triggered the following reactions in major assets:
8月份漲跌互現的通脹報告以及投資者對聯儲局在9月會議上進一步減息的預期相應下降，引發了主要資產的以下反應：
- The S&P 500, as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), opened Wednesday's session 0.2% lower.
- Tech stocks, followed by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ) were flat.
- Small caps, as tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM), sunk 1%.
- The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLK) was the top-performing S&P 500 sector, up 0.5%.
- The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLRE) was the main laggard, down 1.6%.
- The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP) rose 0.1%.
- The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) eased 0.1% as Treasury yields rose.
- Gold prices, monitored through the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), fell by 0.4%.
- Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) fell 2%.
- 根據SPDR標準普爾500指數ETF信託基金（紐約證券交易所代碼：SPY）追蹤的標準普爾500指數週三開盤下跌0.2％。
- 科技股，其次是景順QQ信託基金，第一系列（納斯達克股票代碼：QQQ）持平。
- 根據iShares Russell 2000 ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：IWM）追蹤的小盤股下跌了1％。
- 科技精選板塊SPDR基金（紐約證券交易所代碼：XLK）是標準普爾500指數表現最好的板塊，上漲0.5％。
- 房地產精選板塊SPDR基金（紐約證券交易所代碼：XLRE）是主要落後者，下跌1.6％。
- 景順Db美元指數看漲基金ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：UUP）上漲0.1％。
- 隨着美國國債收益率的上升，iShares 20年期以上國債ETF（納斯達克股票代碼：TLT）下跌了0.1％。
- 通過SPDR黃金信託基金（紐約證券交易所代碼：GLD）監管的黃金價格下跌了0.4％。
- 比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）下跌了2％。
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