Retail Sale Slowdown Points To Cautious Sentiment
Retail Sale Slowdown Points To Cautious Sentiment
For the first seven months of the year, Malaysia's distributive trade sales increased by 6.0%, supported by a 9.3% yoy rise in motor vehicle sales, alongside continued growth in retail trade (+6.3% yoy) and wholesale trade (+4.8% yoy). However, projections suggest that retail trade will grow by 5.0% for the full year, a more modest increase compared to 9.0% in 2023. The slower growth outlook reflects a combination of factors, including rising income and employment levels, the recovery in tourist arrivals, and government policy measures such as increased cash assistance for the B40 income group.Malaysia's retail sales continued to grow in July 2024, albeit at a slower pace, as the country's domestic spending saw a sustainable increase. According to the latest report, the retail trade grew by 6.4% year-on-year (yoy), marking a slight moderation compared to previous months. However, overall distributive trade expanded by 6.7% yoy, supported by encouraging sales in motor vehicles and wholesale trade, which rose by 12.2% and 5.5% yoy, respectively.
馬來西亞的零售銷售在2024年7月繼續增長，儘管增速較慢，但國內消費支出持續增加。根據最新報告，零售業同比增長6.4%，與前幾個月相比略有放緩。然而，總體分銷貿易同比增長6.7%，得益於汽車銷售和批發貿易的增長，分別同比增長12.2%和5.5%。
In seasonally-adjusted terms, the volume of distributive trade posted a 5.3% yoy increase, up from 4.3% in June. This growth was particularly driven by a rebound in motor vehicle sales, which saw an 8.7% yoy rise following a slight decline in June, as well as stronger growth in wholesale trade, which grew by 5.1% compared to 3.1% in June.
在季節調整後，分銷貿易成交量同比增長5.3%，高於6月的4.3%。這種增長主要受到汽車銷售的反彈推動，同比增長8.7%，而6月份稍微下降，以及批發貿易的增長加強，同比增長5.1%，而6月份爲3.1%。
Improved Airport Passenger Movements
提高的機場旅客流動
The recovery in air travel continued to show positive momentum, contributing to the overall economic outlook. As of the first seven months of the year (7MCY24), Malaysia Airports Holdings Berhad (MAHB) recorded a recovery rate of 88.5% compared to 2019 levels. This was largely driven by increased domestic passenger movements, which reached 85.2% of pre-pandemic levels, and the continued recovery in international travellers, now at 91.6% of 2019 figures.
航空旅行的復甦繼續展現積極勢頭，對整體經濟前景做出貢獻。截至今年前7個月(7MCY24)，馬來西亞機場管理局（MAHB）的恢復率達到了2019年水平的88.5%。這主要得益於國內旅客流動的增加，已達到疫情前水平的85.2%，以及國際旅行者的持續恢復，目前達到2019年數據的91.6%。
Retail Trade Expected to Grow by 5.0% in 2024
預計2024年零售貿易增長5.0%
For the first seven months of the year, Malaysia's distributive trade sales increased by 6.0%, supported by a 9.3% yoy rise in motor vehicle sales, alongside continued growth in retail trade (+6.3% yoy) and wholesale trade (+4.8% yoy). However, projections suggest that retail trade will grow by 5.0% for the full year, a more modest increase compared to 9.0% in 2023. The slower growth outlook reflects a combination of factors, including rising income and employment levels, the recovery in tourist arrivals, and government policy measures such as increased cash assistance for the B40 income group.
今年前7個月，馬來西亞的分銷貿易銷售額增長6.0%，受到汽車銷售的9.3%同比增長的提振，以及零售貿易(+6.3%同比增長)和批發貿易(+4.8%同比增長)的持續增長。然而，預計零售貿易全年將增長5.0%，增速較2023年的9.0%更爲溫和。增長趨緩的預期反映了多種因素的綜合影響，包括收入和就業水平的上升、旅遊到訪的恢復以及政府對B40收入群體增加現金援助等政策措施。
Challenges Ahead: Consumer Sentiment and Rising Costs
面臨的挑戰：消費者情緒和上漲成本
Despite the positive growth trends, consumer sentiment remains cautious due to concerns over rising living costs and policy changes. While core CPI inflation stayed stable at around 1.9% yoy from April to July 2024, consumers continue to highlight increasing prices as a key concern. The government's plans to further rationalise subsidy allocations, particularly a shift to targeted subsidies for RON95 fuel, may also weigh on consumer confidence.
儘管增長趨勢令人樂觀，但消費者情緒仍然謹慎，擔心生活成本上升和政策變動。儘管核心CPI通脹率從2024年4月到7月保持在約1.9%同比增長，但消費者繼續強調價格上漲是一個重要的擔憂。政府進一步合理化補貼分配的計劃，特別是向RON95燃油的有針對性補貼轉變，也可能對消費者信心產生影響。
Additionally, there are signs of a slowdown in personal loans and credit card loans, which grew at more moderate rates of 4.4% yoy and 7.8% yoy, respectively, in July, in line with the more measured growth in retail trade.
此外，個人貸款和信用卡貸款增速放緩，分別在7月份同比增長4.4％和7.8％，與零售業增長放緩趨勢一致。
Looking ahead, the positive labour market conditions, higher tourist arrivals, and flexible access to retirement funds are expected to continue supporting the distributive trade sector. However, the broader outlook will depend on how consumer sentiment evolves in response to rising costs and government policy decisions.
展望未來，積極的勞動力市場條件、更高的旅遊人數和養老基金的靈活使用將繼續支持分銷貿易板塊。然而，整體前景將取決於消費者情緒對不斷上漲的成本和政府政策決策的反應。
Source: MIDF
Title: Retail Sales Continued to Grow Albeit Moderating to +6.4%yoy in Aug-24
來源：MIDF
標題：零售銷售繼續增長，儘管在2024年8月放緩至+ 6.4％同比增長