Electoral Implications For Leveraged Tech ETF
Electoral Implications For Leveraged Tech ETF
Plenty of sectors are in electoral crosshairs this year, technology chief among them. The S&P 500's largest sector weight is a leadership group again in 2020, but there are implications for it come Election Day.
今年，許多行業都成為了選舉的靶子，科技行業的領頭羊就是其中之一。標準普爾500指數(S&P500)最大的板塊權重在2020年再次成為領導層，但隨着選舉日的到來，這一點將產生影響。
What Happened
怎麼了
Those implications make the Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:TECL) a credible post-election idea. TECL attempts to deliver triple the daily returns of the Technology Select Sector Index, a benchmark that's essentially an ode to Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) as that duo combine for more than 44% of the index's weight.
As has been widely documented, some titans of tech are drawing the ire of politicians on both sides of the aisle, but the conventional wisdom is that a victory by former Vice President Joe Biden would take some of the heat off the sector.
正如廣泛記錄的那樣，一些科技巨頭正在招致兩黨政客的憤怒，但傳統觀點認為前副總統喬·拜登(Joe Biden)的勝利將緩解該行業的一些壓力。
Why It's Important
為什麼它很重要
That will probably prove to be true if Biden wins, but there are reasons to consider TECL, including intra-tech rotations.
如果拜登獲勝，這可能會被證明是真的，但有理由考慮Tecl，包括技術內部的輪換。
“If you are long-duration technology – SaaS, payment processors, FAANG – you do not believe rotation is sustainable. Evidence of that view is best represented in the 8% bounce in the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX) since the week of September 25,” writes Rareview Macro founder Neil Azous. “The opposing view is that cyclical technology, value names, and GARP stocks should benefit from a more balanced portfolio into the Presidential Election, especially if Biden wins. He is more likely to break up the monopoly names.”
“如果你是長期科技公司--SaaS、支付處理商、FAANG--你就不會相信輪換是可持續的。納斯達克100指數(NASDAQ-100 Index，NDX)自9月25日當週以來反彈了8%，這最能證明這一觀點。Rareview Macro創始人尼爾·阿祖斯寫道。“相反的觀點是，週期性技術、價值名稱和GARP股票應該會從總統選舉中更平衡的投資組合中受益，特別是如果拜登獲勝的話。他更有可能打破壟斷企業的名稱。“
Assuming Biden pursues the breaking up monopolies angle, TECL's bearish counterpart, the Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares (NYSE:TECS), could come into focus. However, that thesis probably doesn't account for Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), a friend of Silicon Valley, being Biden's running mate.
假設拜登追求打破壟斷的角度，Tecl的悲觀同行Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X股票紐約證券交易所代碼：TECS)可能會成為焦點。然而，這一論斷可能沒有考慮到硅谷的朋友、參議員卡馬拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)是拜登的競選夥伴。
What's Next
下一步是什麼？
Monopoly breaking is hard and even if President Trump scores the upset, there are no guarantees he'll have the political capital to wage anything more than verbal war against tech giants.
打破壟斷是很困難的，即使特朗普總統贏得了顛覆，也不能保證他會有政治資本對科技巨頭髮動口水戰以外的任何事情。
That is to say even if he does pull victory from the jaws of defeat, TECL should still shape up nicely after Election Day. Plus, there are more technical reasons that could be the case.
這就是説，即使他真的從失敗中脱穎而出，泰克也應該在選舉日之後表現得很好。此外，還有更多的技術原因可能是這樣的。
“Regarding the old generals – Oracle, Cisco, Intel, etc. – many of the charts are constructive,” said Azous.
“關於老將軍們--甲骨文、思科、英特爾等--很多圖表都很有建設性，”阿祖斯説。
Those names and other mature tech fare reside in TECL's underlying index.
這些名字和其他成熟的科技股都在Tecl的基礎指數中。