'91% Chance Local Top Is In,' Says Trader Ahead Of Pivotal Rate Cut Decision
'91% Chance Local Top Is In,' Says Trader Ahead Of Pivotal Rate Cut Decision
A potential crypto market reversal ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday may be on the cards, according to a crypto trader.
一位加密貨幣交易員表示,在即將於週三舉行的聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議之前,加密貨幣市場可能會出現逆轉。
What Happened: Pseudonymous trader Astronomer Zero puts a 91% chance on the market reversing after the meeting.
發生了什麼:化名交易員Astronomener Zero認爲會議結束後市場逆轉的可能性爲91%。
According to their analysis, FOMC meetings have consistently triggered market reversals, often marking significant high timeframe moves in the crypto market.
根據他們的分析,聯邦公開市場委員會會議不斷引發市場逆轉,這通常標誌着加密市場在較高的時間框架內走勢。
Polymarket data shows a 53% probability of a 50 basis points cut and a 45% chance of a 25 basis points cut.
保利市場的數據顯示,下調50個點子的可能性爲53%,下調25個點子的可能性爲45%。
However, the trader cautions that the current market compression and tight trading range make precise predictions more challenging.
但是,該交易員警告說,當前的市場壓縮和狹窄的交易區間使精確的預測更具挑戰性。
Despite the potential short-term downturn, the analyst maintains a bullish long-term outlook. He references a separate analysis indicating a high-confidence bottom around the low $50,000 range for Bitcoin. This long-term perspective aligns with the overall thesis of a ranging market scenario within macro highs and lows.
儘管可能出現短期衰退,但分析師仍保持看漲的長期前景。他引用了另一項分析,該分析表明,比特幣的信心在50,000美元的低位區間附近觸底。這種長期視角符合宏觀高點和低點範圍內的波動市場情景的總體論點。
"We have been calling the bottom with high confidence (100% certainty over 16 data points over the entire history of $BTC) around the low 50's," Astronomer Zero points out.
Astronomer Zero指出:「在50年代的低點附近,我們一直滿懷信心地觸底(在BTC的整個歷史中,超過16個數據點的確定性爲100%)。」
The trader's strategy involves taking profits on recent upward movements and preparing to "reload spot back lower" following the expected FOMC-induced reversal. While local price sweeps above recent weekend highs are possible, an overall downward move is anticipated.
交易者的策略包括在最近的上行走勢中獲利,並準備在預期的聯邦公開市場委員會引發的逆轉之後 「將現貨重新拉低迴低位」。儘管當地價格有可能突破近期週末的高點,但預計總體上會出現下行走勢。
Also Read: 'What Changed?' — Federal Reserve May Take A Bigger 50 Basis Points Rate Cut Bite Next Week, Market Odds Imply
另請閱讀:「發生了什麼變化?」— 市場賠率暗示,聯儲局下週可能會進一步減息50個點子
Importantly, Astronomer Zero does not foresee a dramatic price collapse, stating, "So this analysis suggest that we get a local move down, yet not expecting a full collapse into the low 40's or even the 30's as many are still expecting."
重要的是,Astronomer Zero並未預見到價格會急劇下跌,他說:「因此,該分析表明,我們將局部下跌,但預計不會像許多人仍然預期的那樣全面跌至40年代甚至30年代的低點。」
This prediction aligns with the broader market view, which anticipates a prolonged ranging period for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), likely lasting until the fourth quarter of the year.
這一預測與更廣泛的市場觀點一致,後者預計比特幣(加密貨幣:BTC)將持續很長一段時間,可能持續到今年第四季度。
As the crypto community awaits the FOMC meeting's outcome, market participants are advised to consider both short-term volatility and long-term trends in their trading and investment strategies.
在加密社區等待聯邦公開市場委員會會議結果之際,建議市場參與者在交易和投資策略中同時考慮短期波動性和長期趨勢。
What's Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga's upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
下一步是什麼:Benzinga即將於11月19日舉行的數字資產未來活動預計將全面探討比特幣作爲機構資產類別的影響力。