Contrarian Trader Bets $200K To Win $6.5M On This Unlikely Fed Rate Cut Scenario
Contrarian Trader Bets $200K To Win $6.5M On This Unlikely Fed Rate Cut Scenario
The size of the cut is more contentious.A Polymarket trader, going by the alias BasedBoi, has placed a $200,000 bet that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in its much-anticipated Sep. 18 meeting.
一位名爲BasedBoi的Polymarket交易員下了一筆20萬美元的賭注，即聯儲局將在備受期待的9月18日會議上保持利率不變。
What Happened: The trader down over $100,000 on his bet, which, if successful, would yield a $6.5 million payout.
這位交易員輸掉了超過10萬元的賭注，如果成功的話，將會獲得650萬美元的獎金。
The Federal Reserve's decision has kept market participants on edge, with a rate cut seen as practically assured. The CME Fedwatch tool shows a 100% probability for a rate cut, while the corresponding Polymarket markets price a rate cut at 98.5%.
聯邦儲備決定讓市場參與者感到緊張，減息被視爲幾乎是確定的。根據CME的Fedwatch工具顯示，減息的概率爲100%，而對應的Polymarket市場則將減息的價格定爲98.5%。
The size of the cut is more contentious.
減息規模的大小是更有爭議的。
Polymarket data shows a 43% chance the Fed will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) and a 56% chance is attributed to a more aggressive 50 bps reduction. Over $12 million have been traded on these two options alone, with the entire market racking up a trading volume of over $45 million.
Polymarket的數據顯示，聯儲局將減息25個點子的概率爲43%，而將減息50個點子的概率爲56%。僅這兩個選項的交易總額已超過1200萬美元，整個市場的交易量超過4500萬美元。
The odds diverge from Fedwatch, where a 50bps cut is a 67:33 favorite.
這些賠率與Fedwatch的預測相左，Fedwatch中50個點子的減息概率爲67%，而33%的人認爲減息幅度將不到50個點子。
Also Read: Donald Trump To Visit Springfield, Ohio 'Soon'? Not So Fast, Polymarket Traders Say
此外閱讀：特朗普是否會很快到訪俄亥俄州斯普林菲爾德？Polymarket交易員表示不會。
Why It Matters: This massive bet is set against a backdrop of heightened expectations as investors eagerly await the Fed's next move.
爲什麼這很重要：這筆巨額賭注發生在投資者對聯儲局下一步行動充滿期待的背景下。
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) remains flat at $59,150, while Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) is slightly up at $2,312, reflecting broader market caution as uncertainty looms.
比特幣（CRYPTO: BTC）持平於$59,150，而以太幣（CRYPTO: ETH）微漲至$2,312，反映出市場的謹慎情緒隨着不確定性的出現而增加。
Experts expects some form of rate cut, with a nearly even split between a 25 bps and 50 bps reduction.
專家們預計會進行某種程度的減息，而25個點子和50個點子的降幅幾乎平分。
This makes BasedBoi's maverick bet even more of an outlier, risking a significant portion of capital on the belief that the Fed will hold rates steady.
這使得BasedBoi的非傳統投注成爲了一個更加落單的行動，冒着將大量資本押注在聯儲局將會維持利率穩定的信念上的風險。
This tension between market expectations and individual bets will be a key point of discussion at Benzinga's Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19, where industry leaders will explore how macroeconomic factors like interest rate cuts are influencing the broader digital assets and crypto markets.
市場預期與個人投注之間的這種緊張關係將是Benzinga的數字資產未來活動的討論重點，該活動將於11月19日舉行，行業領袖將探討利率降低等宏觀經濟因素的影響如何影響更廣泛的數字資產和加密市場。