Malaysian Banks Poised For Boost As Liquidity Improves
Malaysian Banks Poised For Boost As Liquidity Improves
Despite the positive outlook, net interest margins across most banks have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, with variances ranging from 1bp at ABMB to 21bps at RHB. Public Bank stands out as an exception, with NIMs already restored to pre-pandemic levels. If NIMs were to recover further, there could be notable earnings upgrades in FY25/26, with BIMB and RHB potentially seeing the largest revisions, at 14% and 16%, respectively. Public Bank and ABMB, having less room for NIM recovery, are expected to see minimal impact, with the latter possibly experiencing only a 1% earnings change.The Malaysian banking sector continues to show signs of improvement, with system liquidity on the rise, as indicated by trends in CASA deposits, the 3-month KLIBOR, and liquidity coverage ratios (LCRs) at Islamic banks. Maybank Stock Broking House maintain a POSITIVE outlook for the sector, with BUY recommendations on AMMB, CIMB, Public Bank (PBK), RHB, Hong Leong Bank (HLBK), and Hong Leong Financial Group (HLFG). The key factor driving this outlook is the potential for net interest margins (NIMs) to surprise on the upside, potentially leading to earnings upgrades of up to 16%.
馬來西亞銀行業繼續顯示出改善跡象，系統流動性上升，如CASA存款、三個月的KLIBOR和伊斯蘭銀行的流動性覆蓋率顯示的趨勢所示。馬來亞銀行證券經紀公司對該板塊保持積極態度，對AMMb、CIMb、Public Bank（PBK）、RHb、鵬利銀行（HLBK）和鵬利金融集團（HLFG）提出買入建議。推動這一展望的關鍵因素是淨息差（NIMs）有望帶來正面的意外，可能導致盈利預期上調高達16%。
Pressure on NIMs has eased this year after contracting in 2023. Banks have been guiding for NIMs to fluctuate by +/-5bps from 2023 levels, with an expectation of stability across the board. On average, NIMs for banks covered are anticipated to remain stable year-on-year at around 2.07%. Projections for 2025 foresee a conservative 2bps recovery, which could potentially pave the way for further earnings improvements, particularly if NIMs return to pre-pandemic levels.
NIMs的壓力在今年有所緩解，2023年收縮後，並且銀行已經指導從2023年的水平上下波動5個點子，預計整個行業將保持穩定。覆蓋的銀行的NIMs平均預期同比持平在2.07%左右。2025年的預測預示着保守估計的2個點子回升，這可能爲進一步的盈利改善鋪平道路，特別是如果NIMs恢復到疫情前的水平。
System liquidity has been bolstered by improvements in key indicators. CASA deposits, which had contracted year-on-year from January to September 2023, saw a recovery, with a 6.4% year-on-year increase in July 2024. In addition, the 3-month KLIBOR, which had risen to 3.77% in December 2023 due to liquidity constraints, has since eased to hover around 3.50%. Liquidity coverage ratios at Islamic banks, which had dipped to 127% in October 2022, have rebounded to 153%, bringing them back in line with the 150% ratio observed in conventional commercial banks as of July 2024.
關鍵指標的改善提振了系統流動性。CASA存款在2023年1月至9月同比下降後，於2024年7月同比增長了6.4%。此外，由於流動性受限，三個月的KLIBOR在2023年12月上升至3.77%，目前已降至3.50%左右。伊斯蘭銀行的流動性覆蓋率在2022年10月下降至127%，已反彈至153%，使其與2024年7月的傳統商業銀行的150%比例保持一致。
Despite the positive outlook, net interest margins across most banks have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, with variances ranging from 1bp at ABMB to 21bps at RHB. Public Bank stands out as an exception, with NIMs already restored to pre-pandemic levels. If NIMs were to recover further, there could be notable earnings upgrades in FY25/26, with BIMB and RHB potentially seeing the largest revisions, at 14% and 16%, respectively. Public Bank and ABMB, having less room for NIM recovery, are expected to see minimal impact, with the latter possibly experiencing only a 1% earnings change.
儘管展望積極，但大多數銀行的淨息差尚未恢復到疫情前的水平，從ABMb的1個點子到RHb的210億。公共銀行是一個例外，淨息差已經恢復到疫情前的水平。如果淨息差進一步恢復，FY25/26可能會出現顯著的盈利上調，其中BIMb和RHb可能看到最大的修正，分別爲14%和16%。預計公共銀行和ABMb的影響較小，後者可能僅會經歷1%的盈利變動。
Source: Maybank
Title: System liquidity is improving
來源：馬來亞銀行
標題：系統流動性正在改善
