What Does The Fed's Interest Rate Cut Mean For Bitcoin? 50 Bps Cut Is The 'Sweet Spot,' Says Macro Analyst
What Does The Fed's Interest Rate Cut Mean For Bitcoin? 50 Bps Cut Is The 'Sweet Spot,' Says Macro Analyst
For cryptocurrency enthusiasts, Krüger sees a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, though he cautions that its trajectory may be heavily influenced by the upcoming U.S. election results. The Federal Reserve has initiated its long-anticipated easing cycle, potentially setting the stage for a bullish trend in risk assets, including Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and other cryptocurrencies, according to industry experts.
根據行業板塊專家的觀點，聯儲局已經啓動了被長期期待的寬鬆週期，這可能爲包括比特幣（CRYPTO: BTC）和其他加密貨幣在內的風險資產創造了看漲趨勢。
What Happened: Economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger took to his X account to highlight the Fed's decision to implement a 50-basis point cut while projecting an additional 50 basis points of cuts for 2024.
事情的經過：經濟學家和加密分析師Alex Krüger上他的帳戶上強調了聯儲局決定實施50個點子的減息，並預計2024年還將再次減息50個點子。
This balanced approach, Krüger suggests, has struck a "sweet spot" by addressing concerns about the Fed falling behind the curve while simultaneously demonstrating control rather than reactionary measures.
Krüger表示，這種平衡的方法擊中了一個"恰到好處的位置"，既解決了聯儲局落後的擔憂，同時也展示了控制而非反應措施。
For cryptocurrency enthusiasts, Krüger sees a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, though he cautions that its trajectory may be heavily influenced by the upcoming U.S. election results.
對於加密貨幣愛好者來說，Krüger認爲比特幣前景看漲，儘管他警告稱其走勢可能會受到即將到來的美國選舉結果的重大影響。
He even suggested a bold strategy for altcoins: "For altcoins, go max long early in Election Night if Trump is coming up ahead in the counts. That's my plan."
他甚至提出了一個大膽的策略，針對另類幣："對於另類幣來說，如果特朗普在選舉當晚處於領先位置，可以提前開始開多。這是我的計劃。"
Krüger emphasized the robust state of the U.S. economy, a factor he considers crucial for risk assets. He pointed out a historical trend: "Historically when the Fed begins its easing cycle with no recession, equities have rallied 10% in six months, while if the Fed begins the cycle in a recession, equities have fallen by 12%."
Krüger強調了美國經濟的強勁狀態，他認爲這是風險資產至關重要的因素。他指出了一個歷史趨勢："從歷史上看，當聯儲局在沒有衰退的情況下開始實施寬鬆週期時，股票市場在六個月內上漲了10%，而如果聯儲局在衰退中開始週期，股市下跌了12%。"
Why It Matters: Economic strength was echoed in Fed Chair Jerome Powell's statement: "I don't see anything in the economy that suggests the likelihood of a downturn is elevated. You see growth at a solid rate, you see inflation coming down, you see a labor market that's still at very solid levels."
爲什麼它很重要：聯儲局主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在聲明中表示：「在經濟中我沒有看到任何跡象表明經濟衰退的可能性升高。你可以看到穩定的增長，你可以看到通脹下降，你可以看到勞動力市場仍處於非常穩定的水平。」
However, Krüger also tempered expectations, noting that U.S. equities are not cheap and that a return to a real negative rates environment is unlikely in the near future. He observed a significant divergence between market expectations and Fed projections for 2025, with the market pricing in a 25% probability of a hard landing.
然而，克呂格也對預期進行了修正，指出美國股市並不便宜，並且在不久的將來不太可能出現實際的負利率環境。他觀察到市場對2025年的預期和聯儲局的預測存在顯著分歧，市場定價出現25%的硬着陸風險。
In conclusion, Krüger's analysis suggests that while the Fed's easing cycle could boost risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, investors should remain vigilant of economic indicators and political developments that could shape market trends in the coming months.
總之，克呂格的分析表明，儘管聯儲局的寬鬆週期可能提振風險資產，包括加密貨幣，但投資者應保持警惕，關注可能塑造未來幾個月市場趨勢的經濟指標和政治發展。