'Mass Slaughter': Wealth Manager Warns Of Market Correction, Digital Disruption As ETF, Passive Investing Goes Up And To The Right
'Mass Slaughter': Wealth Manager Warns Of Market Correction, Digital Disruption As ETF, Passive Investing Goes Up And To The Right
A renowned financial advisor, lawyer, and CEO of Creative Planning, Peter Mallouk, has expressed concerns about the future of the Registered Investment Advisory (RIA) industry despite projections that it will exceed $2.92 trillion by 2029.
著名的財務顧問、律師和創意規劃公司的CEO彼得·馬盧克對註冊投資諮詢(RIA)行業的未來表示擔憂,儘管預計到2029年該行業規模將超過2.92萬億美元。
Mallouk discussed industry news with The Daily Upside at Future Proof, the world's largest wealth festival, in Huntington Beach, CA.
馬盧克在加利福尼亞州亨廷頓海灘舉辦的未來保護世界最大財富節上與《每日利潤》討論了行業新聞。
"The market has been on a 15-year bull run and just gone straight up. When the markets normalize, there will be a mass slaughter. I mean, it's going to be really bad, and it's going to happen in a very short, multiyear period," he said, adding that many RIA's have grown complacent, owing to the success of the broad industry.
他說:「市場已經經歷了15年的牛市,一直直線上升。當市場趨於正常化時,將會發生大規模的屠殺。我的意思是,情況將非常糟糕,並且將在很短的多年時間內發生。」他還補充說,由於整個行業的成功,許多RIA機構變得自滿起來。
However, the market might struggle to hear him over the sounds of its fireworks. The FED has just cut interest rates by 50 basis points, equities are at fresh all-time highs, and the RIA industry seems to thrive.
然而,市場可能聽不到他的聲音,只會聽到煙花聲。聯邦儲備系統剛剛降低了利率50個點子,股票市場達到了創紀錄的高位,RIA行業似乎蓬勃發展。
Franklin Templeton (NYSE:BEN), an industry leader, manages as many as 455 open-ended mutual funds, while Invesco (NYSE:IVZ) recently reported a 12% year-over-year increase in assets under management, surpassing $1.7 trillion. Despite these figures demonstrating the industry's momentum, Mallouk believes many firms could be vulnerable if market conditions change.
行業領導者富蘭克林·坦普爾頓(NYSE:BEN)管理着多達455只開放式共同基金,而景順(NYSE:IVZ)最近報告的管理資產同比增長12%,超過了1.7萬億美元。儘管這些數據顯示了該行業的勢頭,馬盧克認爲,如果市場情況發生變化,許多公司都可能面臨風險。
Mallouk also points to larger economic risks, particularly related to deficit spending – which is set to reach $1.9 trillion in 2024, up from $1.7 trillion in 2023.
馬盧克還指出了較大的經濟風險,特別是與赤字支出有關-預計到2024年將達到1.9萬億美元,而2023年爲1.7萬億美元。
"It's really hard to get your brain around just how much money is sloshing around the system and what deficit spending does to the economy," he said.
他說:「真的很難理解體系中有多少資金在流動,以及財政赤字對經濟的影響。」
Technology is another area where Mallouk sees both promise and peril. While advancements like artificial intelligence (AI) can enhance efficiency and scalability, they also introduce risks, including cybersecurity threats and misinformation.
科技是馬盧克看到的既有希望又有風險的領域。人工智能等技術可以提高效率和可擴展性,但也帶來了網絡安全威脅和虛假信息等風險。
Canadian veteran financial planner Jason Pereira recently echoed a similar sentiment, particularly addressing the hype surrounding generative AI.
加拿大資深理財規劃師賈森·佩雷拉最近也表達了類似的觀點,特別是針對生成式人工智能周圍的炒作。
"Generative AI is the most meaningful technological change since mobile computing," he wrote for Kitces. While recognizing it as the biggest transformative advancement in years, he cautions that its full impact won't be felt immediately.
他在Kitces撰文稱:「生成式人工智能是自移動計算以來最具意義的技術變革。」 雖然承認這是多年來最重大的轉變,但他警告說,其全面影響不會立即顯現。
"Can they expect to find an AI tool that changes everything today? Quite simply, no. Can it happen in 10 years? That's a much more probable outcome," he noted.
他指出:「他們能指望今天找到一種改變一切的人工智能工具嗎?簡單地說,不行。十年內可能會發生嗎?這是一個更有可能的結果。」
Pereira stresses that while AI can speed up certain processes, its effectiveness depends on how well advisors understand and use the technology.
佩雷拉強調,雖然人工智能可以加快某些流程,但其效果取決於顧問們對技術的理解和運用程度。
"It doesn't make things better; it makes things faster—if you know what you're doing," he explained, suggesting that firms should focus on mastering technology rather than relying on it to solve all their problems.
他解釋說:「它並不會讓事情更好;它只會讓事情更快——如果你知道你在做什麼。」 他建議公司應專注於掌握技術,而不是依賴技術解決所有問題。
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Photo: shutterstock