Here's Why Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden
Here's Why Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE:TSN) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
由伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李露對此毫不掩飾,他說:「最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。」因此,當你評估公司的風險時,看來聰明的貨幣知道債務(通常涉及破產)是一個非常重要的因素。我們注意到,泰森食品公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:TSN)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但更重要的問題是:這筆債務會帶來多大的風險?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
爲什麼債務會帶來風險?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
債務可以幫助企業,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是新資本還是自由現金流。在最壞的情況下,如果一家公司無法向債權人付款,它可能會破產。但是,更常見(但仍然令人痛苦)的情況是,它必須以低廉的價格籌集新的股權資本,從而永久稀釋股東。但是,通過取代稀釋,對於需要資本以高回報率投資增長的企業來說,債務可能是一個非常好的工具。當我們考慮公司使用債務時,我們首先要同時考慮現金和債務。
How Much Debt Does Tyson Foods Carry?
泰森食品揹負了多少債務?
As you can see below, at the end of June 2024, Tyson Foods had US$11.0b of debt, up from US$9.32b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$2.58b, its net debt is less, at about US$8.44b.
如下所示,截至2024年6月底,泰森食品的債務爲110億美元,高於去年同期的93.2億美元。點擊圖片查看更多細節。但是,由於其現金儲備爲25.8億美元,其淨負債較少,約爲84.4億美元。
How Healthy Is Tyson Foods' Balance Sheet?
泰森食品的資產負債表有多健康?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Tyson Foods had liabilities of US$5.81b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$13.7b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$2.58b as well as receivables valued at US$2.39b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$14.6b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
放大最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到,泰森食品在12個月內到期的負債爲58.1億美元,之後到期的負債爲137億美元。除這些債務外,它有25.8億美元的現金和價值23.9億美元的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,它的負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的總和多出146億美元。
This is a mountain of leverage even relative to its gargantuan market capitalization of US$21.9b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
即使與其219億美元的龐大市值相比,這也是一座巨大的槓桿作用。這表明,如果公司需要迅速支撐資產負債表,股東將被嚴重稀釋。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
我們通過以下方法來衡量公司的債務負擔與其盈利能力:將其淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),並計算其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)支付利息支出(利息保障)的難易程度。這種方法的優勢在於,我們既考慮了債務的絕對數量(包括淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤),也考慮了與該債務相關的實際利息支出(及其利息覆蓋率)。
Tyson Foods has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.3 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 2.9 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Worse, Tyson Foods's EBIT was down 30% over the last year. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Tyson Foods's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
泰森食品的債務與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比率爲3.3,其息稅前利潤支付了利息支出的2.9倍。這表明,儘管債務水平很高,但我們不會稱其爲有問題。更糟糕的是,泰森食品的息稅前利潤比去年下降了30%。如果收益長期保持這樣的水平,那麼償還債務的可能性很小。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是,未來的收益將決定泰森食品未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Tyson Foods recorded free cash flow of 31% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
但是我們最終的考慮因素也很重要,因爲公司無法用紙面利潤來償還債務;它需要冷硬現金。因此,合乎邏輯的步驟是研究該息稅前利潤與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。從最近三年來看,泰森食品的自由現金流佔其息稅前利潤的31%,低於我們的預期。這種疲軟的現金轉換使得處理債務變得更加困難。
Our View
我們的觀點
We'd go so far as to say Tyson Foods's EBIT growth rate was disappointing. And even its level of total liabilities fails to inspire much confidence. Overall, it seems to us that Tyson Foods's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Tyson Foods (1 can't be ignored) you should be aware of.
我們甚至可以說泰森食品的息稅前利潤增長率令人失望。而且,即使是其總負債水平也無法激發信心。總體而言,在我們看來,泰森食品的資產負債表對企業來說確實是一個很大的風險。因此,我們對這隻魚的警惕幾乎就像一隻飢餓的小貓要掉進主人的魚池一樣警惕:正如他們所說,一旦被咬傷,兩次害羞。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。例如,我們已經確定了泰森食品的兩個警告信號(其中一個不容忽視),你應該注意。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
畢竟,如果你對一家資產負債表堅如磐石的快速成長型公司更感興趣,那麼請立即查看我們的淨現金增長股票清單。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。