It's been a sad week for MillerKnoll, Inc. (NASDAQ:MLKN), who've watched their investment drop 13% to US$23.50 in the week since the company reported its first-quarter result. Revenues fell 3.1% short of expectations, at US$862m. Earnings correspondingly dipped, with MillerKnoll reporting a statutory loss of US$0.02 per share, whereas the analysts had previously modelled a profit in this period. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for MillerKnoll from four analysts is for revenues of US$3.69b in 2025. If met, it would imply a modest 3.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 82% to US$1.68. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$3.67b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.95 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 5.7% to US$33.00, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on MillerKnoll, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$38.00 and the most bearish at US$28.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await MillerKnoll shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MillerKnoll's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than MillerKnoll.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for MillerKnoll. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of MillerKnoll's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple MillerKnoll analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for MillerKnoll (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you need to take into consideration.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.