51 Credit Card Inc. (HKG:2051) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 27% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. Still, a bad month hasn't completely ruined the past year with the stock gaining 95%, which is great even in a bull market.
Since its price has dipped substantially, it would be understandable if you think 51 Credit Card is a stock with good investment prospects with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 1.3x, considering almost half the companies in Hong Kong's Consumer Finance industry have P/S ratios above 2.1x. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.
How 51 Credit Card Has Been Performing
As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at 51 Credit Card over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is low because investors think the company won't do enough to avoid underperforming the broader industry in the near future. Those who are bullish on 51 Credit Card will be hoping that this isn't the case so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for 51 Credit Card, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.
Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?
51 Credit Card's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the industry.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 29% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 39% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 35% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this information, we are not surprised that 51 Credit Card is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/S has reached a floor yet with revenue going in reverse. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.
The Bottom Line On 51 Credit Card's P/S
The southerly movements of 51 Credit Card's shares means its P/S is now sitting at a pretty low level. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.
As we suspected, our examination of 51 Credit Card revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term is contributing to its low P/S, given the industry is set to grow. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises either. Given the current circumstances, it seems unlikely that the share price will experience any significant movement in either direction in the near future if recent medium-term revenue trends persist.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for 51 Credit Card that you should be aware of.
Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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