Changchun Yidong Clutch CO.,LTD (SHSE:600148) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 29% share price jump in the last month. While recent buyers may be laughing, long-term holders might not be as pleased since the recent gain only brings the stock back to where it started a year ago.
After such a large jump in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Changchun Yidong ClutchLTD is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 3x, considering almost half the companies in China's Auto Components industry have P/S ratios below 1.7x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.
What Does Changchun Yidong ClutchLTD's Recent Performance Look Like?
Revenue has risen firmly for Changchun Yidong ClutchLTD recently, which is pleasing to see. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is high because investors think this respectable revenue growth will be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Changchun Yidong ClutchLTD, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.
How Is Changchun Yidong ClutchLTD's Revenue Growth Trending?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, Changchun Yidong ClutchLTD would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 24% last year. Still, revenue has fallen 46% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenues over that time.
Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 23% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that Changchun Yidong ClutchLTD's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Bottom Line On Changchun Yidong ClutchLTD's P/S
The large bounce in Changchun Yidong ClutchLTD's shares has lifted the company's P/S handsomely. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.
We've established that Changchun Yidong ClutchLTD currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Changchun Yidong ClutchLTD (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable) you should be aware of.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Changchun Yidong ClutchLTD, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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