The stubborn inflationary pressure that kept the Federal Reserve in abeyance until earlier this month could be a thing of the past but another risk could supersede it, an economist said on Monday.
What Happened: The artificial intelligence technology is a "deflationary nuclear bomb," said prominent investor and macroeconomist Raoul Pal. "The cheaper it gets, the cheaper everything gets... electricity is the other one," he said.
He also said, "We are reaching the deflationary tipping point there too, which accelerates AI...which accelerates cheaper energy and compute...," he said.
Pal's comments came in response to a post by a social-media user in which he quoted comments from Dane Vahey, Head of Strategic Marketing at OpenAI. The executive said in a presentation that the cost per million tokens fell from $36 to 25 cents in the past 18 months. "AI has been the greatest cost-depreciating technology ever invented," he said.
As I've said, AI is a deflationary nuclear bomb. The cheaper it gets, the cheaper everything gets... electricity is the other one. No one believes it now but we are reaching the deflationary tipping point there too, which accelerates AI...which accelerates cheaper energy and...
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) September 24, 2024
Why It's Important: A similar view was expressed by Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood at a Forbes conference late last year. The fund manager mentioned AI as a source of deflation. Sun Microsystems co-founder Vinod Khosla said in a December tweet, "AI should be hugely deflationary over twenty-five years."
Khosla, who is also a venture capitalist, having invested in OpenAI, said the current measures of GDP and economy will be less relevant but goods and services in great abundance.
AI and automation can perk up productivity and efficiency, thereby enabling producers to meet consumer demand without a concomitant increase in prices.
Robots are now being manufactured on a large scale and have various use cases across the manufacturing industries. Elon Musk's Tesla is developing a humanoid robot called Teslabot. On the second-quarter earnings call, Musk said the potential that general-purpose humanoid robots offer is several times that of the $5 trillion opportunity for robotaxis.
Apart from keeping prices, artificial general intelligence will also boost GDP, Ark Invest's Wood said back in early 2022 – a time when the AI revolution was yet to kickstart. A breakthrough in AGI will lead to the acceleration of GDP within the next six to 12 years, she said, adding that GDP growth will increase from the 3-5% year-over-year rate currently to 30-50% per year.
On the flip side, there are worries that the benefits of AI would come at the expense of humans and could lead to large-scale job losses.
In premarket trading on Tuesday, the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (NASDAQ:AIQ) edged up 0.11% at $36.16, according to Benzinga Pro data. The Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (NASDAQ:BOTZ) was up a more modest 0.04% at $31.15.
一位經濟學家週一表示,使聯儲局一直擱置到本月早些時候的頑固通脹壓力可能已成爲過去,但另一種風險可能會取而代之。
發生了什麼:著名投資者兼宏觀經濟學家拉烏爾·帕爾說,人工智能技術是 「通貨緊縮核彈」。他說:「它變得越便宜,所有東西都越便宜... 電力是另一回事。」
他還說:「我們在那裏也達到了通貨緊縮的臨界點,這加速了人工智能... 加速了更便宜的能源和計算...」 他說。
帕爾的評論是對一位社交媒體用戶的帖子的回應,他在帖子中引用了OpenAI戰略營銷主管戴恩·瓦希的評論。這位高管在一次演講中表示,在過去的18個月中,每百萬個代幣的成本從36美元下降到25美分。他說:「人工智能一直是有史以來發明的最大的成本折舊技術。」
正如我所說,人工智能是通貨緊縮的核彈。它變得越便宜,所有東西都越便宜... 電力是另一回事。現在沒人相信,但我們在那裏也達到了通貨緊縮的臨界點,這加速了人工智能... 它加速了更便宜的能源和...
— 拉烏爾·帕爾 (@RaoulGMI) 2024 年 9 月 24 日
爲何重要:去年年底,方舟投資創始人凱西·伍德在《福布斯》會議上也表達了類似的觀點。該基金經理提到人工智能是通貨緊縮的來源。太陽微系統聯合創始人維諾德·科斯拉在12月的一條推文中說:「人工智能應該在二十五年內出現巨大的通貨緊縮。」
同時也是風險投資家的科斯拉曾投資過OpenAI。他說,目前的GDP和經濟指標將不那麼重要,但商品和服務將非常豐富。
人工智能和自動化可以提高生產力和效率,從而使生產者能夠在不同時提高價格的情況下滿足消費者的需求。
機器人現在正在大規模製造,在製造業中有各種用例。埃隆·馬斯克的特斯拉正在開發一種名爲Teslabot的人形機器人。在第二季度業績電話會議上,馬斯克表示,通用類人機器人提供的潛力是機器人出租車5萬億美元機會的幾倍。
Ark Invest的伍德早在2022年初就表示,除了保持價格外,人工通用智能還將提振GDP——當時人工智能革命尚未啓動。她說,AGI的突破將導致未來六到十二年內GDP的加速,並補充說,GDP增長將從目前的3-5%增長到每年30-50%。
另一方面,有人擔心人工智能的好處將以犧牲人類爲代價,並可能導致大規模失業。
根據Benzinga Pro的數據,在週二的盤前交易中,Global X人工智能與科技ETF(納斯達克股票代碼:AIQ)小幅上漲0.11%,至36.16美元。Global X機器人與人工智能ETF(納斯達克股票代碼:BOTZ)上漲了0.04%,至31.15美元。