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Australian Banks, Households Resilient to High Rates, RBA Says

Australian Banks, Households Resilient to High Rates, RBA Says

澳大利亞銀行和家庭對高利率有很強的抵抗力,澳洲央行表示
彭博社 ·  09/25 23:07

(Bloomberg) -- The share of Australian borrowers in severe financial stress remains small with the vast majority still able to service their debts, the Reserve Bank said in a half-yearly review, while highlighting other areas of threat to the banking system including from China.

(彭博) - 澳大利亞借款人面臨嚴重財務壓力的比例仍然很小,絕大多數人仍能夠償還債務,儲備銀行在半年度審查中表示,同時指出了包括中國在內的銀行系統面臨的其他威脅。

"The risk of widespread financial stress remains limited due to generally strong financial positions of most borrowers," the RBA said in its Financial Stability Review released in Sydney on Thursday. "Very few mortgage borrowers are in negative equity, limiting the impact on lenders in the event of default and supporting their ability to continue providing credit to the economy."

「由於大多數借款人的財務狀況普遍強勁,普遍存在的財務壓力風險仍然有限,」儲備銀行在週四發佈的悉尼金融穩定性審查中表示。「非常少量的抵押貸款借款人面臨負資產情況,這將限制在違約事件中對貸款人的影響,並支持他們繼續向經濟提供信貸。」

The RBA cautioned that domestic vulnerabilities could increase if households responded to any easing in financial conditions by taking on excessive debt. It noted that periods of low or falling interest rates historically have coincided with borrowers taking on higher levels of debt and in some cases lenders extending credit to risky borrowers.

儲備銀行警告稱,如果家庭對金融狀況有所放鬆導致過度舉債,國內的脆弱性可能會增加。它指出,低利率或下降利率時期歷史上與借款人承擔更高債務水平以及在某些情況下貸款人向風險借款人提供信貸的情況相一致。

"International experience has highlighted the danger of boom-bust asset price cycles, particularly those amplified by the widespread use of borrowed money," the RBA said. "Residential property stands out in this regard."

「國際經驗突顯了由大規模借貸放大的繁榮-衰退資產價格週期的危險,」儲備銀行表示。「在這方面,住宅物業尤爲突出。」

Australian households are under pressure as most are on floating-rate mortgages, meaning the 4.25 percentage points of rate increases between May 2022 and November 2023 rapidly passed through to increases in loan repayments. The RBA has kept its cash rate at a 12-year high of 4.35% this year and has signaled it will remain at that level for the time being.

由於大多數澳大利亞家庭使用的是浮動利率抵押貸款,這意味着2022年5月至2023年11月之間的4.25個百分點的利率上漲迅速傳導到貸款償還額的增加。儲備銀行今年將現金利率維持在12年來的高位4.35%,並暗示它將暫時保持在該水平。

The RBA said Thursday that Australian banks are resilient and even though lenders anticipate an increase in loan arrears, their capital and liquidity buffers are well above regulatory requirements.

儲備銀行週四表示,澳大利亞銀行具有彈性,即使貸款人預計貸款拖欠會增加,他們的資本和流動性緩衝區遠遠高於監管要求。

Many businesses also continue to manage pressure on their cash flows and balance sheets, supported by sturdy finances prior to the inflation breakout of 2021, the review showed. Most businesses that have entered insolvency are small and have little debt, limiting the broader impact on the labor market and thus household incomes, and on the capital position of lenders.

審查顯示,許多企業繼續管理現金流和資產負債表的壓力,在2021年通脹爆發之前的堅實財務支持下。大多數破產的企業規模較小,負債很少,這限制了對勞動力市場和因此家庭收入,以及貸款人資本狀況的更廣泛影響。

"Financial pressures are expected to ease," the RBA said, pointing to tax cuts that kicked in on July 1 and slower inflation. "However, the expected easing in labor market conditions and subdued growth in activity are likely to present challenges for some households and businesses."

澳洲聯儲表示,預計財政壓力將有所緩解,主要是由於7月1日實施的減稅和通脹放緩。然而,預計勞動力市場狀況的改善以及活動增長的乏力可能會給一些家庭和企業帶來挑戰。

Most mortgagors have experienced an increase in minimum scheduled payments of 30%-60% since May 2022, when the current interest rate tightening campaign began. Even so, less than 1% of all owner-occupier housing loan balances are 90+ days in arrears. Around 0.5% of loans in arrears are estimated to be in negative equity.

自2022年5月開始當前利率收緊行動以來,大多數抵押借款人的最低計劃還款額增加了30%-60%。即便如此,在所有自住房貸款餘額中,逾期90天以上的佔比不到1%。逾期貸款約0.5%估計處於資產負債不平衡狀態。

The share of floating-rate owner-occupier borrowers estimated to have had essential expenses and scheduled mortgage repayments exceed their income, leading to an estimated cash flow shortfall, has remained around 5%.

據估計,浮動利率自住房借款人中有大約5%的人因必要支出和計劃的按揭償還超出其收入而導致估計的現金流短缺情況保持在5%左右。

If inflation was to remain high for longer than forecast, the share of borrowers most at risk of being unable to service their debts would increase only slightly, the review found. A larger-than-expected increase in unemployment would lead to greater financial stress though risks to the broader financial system would likely remain contained, it said.

如果通脹維持高位時間超出預期,最危險的貸款人佔比的增加僅會輕微增加,審查發現。預料到的失業率增加大於預期會導致更大的財務壓力,儘管整個金融體系的風險可能仍然受到控制。

The semi-annual review identified Australia's massive superannuation sector as an area of risk to the financial system, given its rapid growth in recent years and increased exposure to margin calls.

半年度審查確定了澳大利亞龐大的養老金領域作爲金融體系的風險領域,考慮到近年來迅速增長以及對追加按金的增加敞口。

Other areas of risk include:

其他風險領域包括:

  • Operational vulnerabilities from digitization of the financial system

  • Low risk premia in global credit and equity markets leaves them vulnerable to a disorderly adjustment

  • Imbalances in China's financial sector could spill over to the rest of its economy, and to Australia and the world, through trade and global risk aversion channels

  • 金融系統數字化帶來的運營漏洞

  • 全球信貸和股票市場的低風險溢價使其容易受到無序調整的影響

  • 中國金融板塊的不平衡可能會通過貿易和全球風險規避渠道波及其餘經濟體,包括澳洲和全球。

2024 Bloomberg L.P.

2024年彭博社萬維網(有限合夥企業)。

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