Top Glove Recovery Exceeds Analysts' Assumption
Top Glove Recovery Exceeds Analysts' Assumption
Top Glove expects to benefit from the recently announced upward revision of US tariffs.Various indicators are pointing to a strong demand recovery moving into 2025 for Top Glove Corporation Berhad (Top Glove) that exceeds market expectation. As a result of higher sales volume and factory utilisation forecasts, coupled by favourable international trade development, the more-upbeat market expectation has put the 2025 and 2026 net profit growth at 39% and 42% respectively, according to Kenanga.
各種因子都指向2025年頂級手套股份有限公司（頂級手套）對強勁需求復甦的預期超出了市場預期。由於銷量更高和工廠利用率預測，加上有利的國際貿易發展，更樂觀的市場預期使得2025年和2026年的淨利潤增長率分別達到39%和42%，根據肯安納。
Top Glove is optimistic that the strong growth momentum will sustain, as customers continue replenishing their depleting glove stockpiles. The group continues to see month-on-month uptrend in sales volume, notably in September 2024, and expects restocking activity to pick up in subsequent quarters. Its sales volume has strengthened 25%-30% month-on-month, bringing its factory utilisation rate to 65%-70%.
頂級手套對強勁增長勢頭將持續感到樂觀，因爲客戶繼續補充其日漸枯竭的手套庫存。集團持續看到銷量每月持續上升的趨勢，尤其是2024年9月，預計後續季度庫存補充活動將加快。其銷量每月增長了25%-30%，使工廠利用率提高到65%-70%。
The group highlighted that its exports to the US is continuing to show improvement and currently account for 28%-30% of its geographical sales mix.
該集團強調，其對美國的出口持續改善，目前佔其地理銷售組合的28%-30%。
Top Glove expects to benefit from the recently announced upward revision of US tariffs.
頂級手套預計將受益於最近宣佈的美國關稅上調。
The hike in US tariffs has largely eliminated market risks related to predatory pricing by glove manufacturers who sell below cost over an extended period to eliminate competitors.
美國關稅的提高在很大程度上消除了與手套製造商進行長時間以低於成本出售以消除競爭對手的掠奪性定價相關的市場風險。
Analysts noted that the present appreciation of Malaysian ringgit (MYR) against the US dollars (USD) is offset by the rising momentum of sales volume. To date, the USD had weakened 10% against the MYR (USD1 = MYR4.12) since the beginning of 2024. Theoretically, an appreciating MYR against the USD will lead to less revenue receipts for glove makers as overseas sales revenues are USD-denominated.
分析師指出，馬來西亞林吉特（MYR）對美元（USD）匯率的目前升值被銷售量增長的動能所抵消。迄今爲止，自2024年初以來，美元對林吉特貶值了10%（1美元=4.12令吉）。從理論上講，林吉特升值對美元將導致手套製造商的海外銷售收入減少。
Key indicators are pointing towards a strong demand recovery moving into the second half of 2024 and 2025, stronger than what analysts previously projected.
關鍵因子指向2024年下半年和2025年的強勁需求復甦，強於分析師先前的預期。
Analysts expect glove stock prices to re-rate in anticipation of near-term earnings upsurge which clearly is a positive for the sector. The oversupply situation appears to be less acute now and will gradually improve. Based on analysts' estimates, the demand-supply situation will move towards equilibrium starting 2026 when there is no more net new capacity coming onstream. Meanwhile, the global demand
for gloves is expected to rise by 15% per annum supported by rising hygiene awareness.
分析師預計手套股價將因近期盈利激增的預期而重新定價，這顯然對該板塊是一個積極的跡象。目前供過於求的局面似乎不再那麼嚴重，將逐漸改善。根據分析師的估計，當沒有更多淨新增產能投入時，需求與供應的狀況將於2026年開始走向均衡。與此同時，全球需求
手套市場預計每年將增長15%，受到衛生意識增強的支持。
Analysts has upgraded Top Glove's target price to RM1.02 (previously RM0.97) while reiterating the MARKET PERFORM call.
分析師已將頂級手套的目標價上調至RM1.02（之前爲RM0.97），同時重申市場表現看漲。
As of reporting at 3:49pm Thursday, Top Glove's stock traded at RM1.02, at par with the target price. (Stock updates by )
截至週四下午3:49報告，頂級手套的股價爲RM1.02，與目標價持平。（股票更新by）