share_log

Kweichow Moutai's (SHSE:600519) Five-year Earnings Growth Trails the 7.8% YoY Shareholder Returns

Kweichow Moutai's (SHSE:600519) Five-year Earnings Growth Trails the 7.8% YoY Shareholder Returns

貴州茅台(SHSE:600519)五年收入增長率低於7.8%的股東回報率
Simply Wall St ·  09/27 01:05

Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. And in our experience, buying the right stocks can give your wealth a significant boost. For example, the Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600519) share price is up 33% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 2.8% (ignoring dividends).

股票選擇者通常在尋找可超越整體市場表現的股票。而根據我們的經驗,買入正確的股票可以顯著提升您的財富。例如,貴州茅台股份有限公司(SHSE:600519)股價在過去5年上漲了33%,明顯超過了市場回報率約2.8%(不考慮分紅)。

The past week has proven to be lucrative for Kweichow Moutai investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's five-year performance.

過去一週對於貴州茅台的投資者來說是賺錢的,讓我們看看基本面是否推動了公司的五年業績。

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

引用巴菲特的話,「船隻會在世界各地航行,但扁平地球協會將空前盛行。市場上的價格和價值將繼續存在巨大差異… 」檢查市場情緒如何隨時間變化的一種方法是查看公司的股價與每股收益(EPS)之間的互動。

Over half a decade, Kweichow Moutai managed to grow its earnings per share at 15% a year. This EPS growth is higher than the 6% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days.

在半個多世紀的時間裏,貴州茅台成功以每年15%的速度增長其每股收益。這種每股收益增長高於股價平均每年增長6%。因此,看起來市場對這支股票並不那麼熱情。

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

該公司的每股收益(隨時間的推移)如下圖所示(單擊可查看確切數字)。

big
SHSE:600519 Earnings Per Share Growth September 27th 2024
SHSE:600519 每股收益增長率 2024年9月27日

We know that Kweichow Moutai has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

我們知道貴州茅台的盈利狀況近來有所改善,但其收入增長會繼續增長嗎?如果你感興趣,你可以查看這份免費報告,顯示共識收入預測。

What About Dividends?

那麼分紅怎麼樣呢?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Kweichow Moutai the TSR over the last 5 years was 46%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

除了衡量股價回報,投資者還應考慮總股東回報率(TSR)。TSR是一種回報計算,考慮了現金股利的價值(假設任何收到的股息均已再投資),以及任何折現的增資和分拆的計算價值。可以說TSR爲支付股息的股票提供了更完整的圖片。我們注意到,貴州茅台過去5年的TSR爲46%,優於上述股價回報。毫無疑問,股息支付在很大程度上解釋了這種背離!

A Different Perspective

不同的觀點

We regret to report that Kweichow Moutai shareholders are down 12% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 10%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 8%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Importantly, we haven't analysed Kweichow Moutai's dividend history. This free visual report on its dividends is a must-read if you're thinking of buying.

遺憾地通報,貴州茅台的股東今年下跌了12%(甚至包括分紅派息在內)。不幸的是,這比整體市場下跌的10%要糟糕。 話雖如此,在一個下跌市場中,一些股票被拋售過度是不可避免的。關鍵是要保持對基本面發展的關注。 長期投資者不會那麼沮喪,因爲他們在過去五年中每年都賺了8%。 如果基本數據繼續表明長期可持續增長,當前的拋售可能是值得考慮的機會。 重要的是,我們還沒有分析貴州茅台的分紅歷史。如果您打算買入,這份關於其分紅的免費可視化報告是必讀的。

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

如果您喜歡與管理層一起購買股票,那麼您可能會喜歡這個公司的免費列表。 (提示:其中許多公司不爲人注意且具有吸引力的估值。)

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在中國交易所上市的股票的市場加權平均回報。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
    搶先評論