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Can Pot Stocks Aurora Cannabis and Canopy Growth Bounce Back in Q4?

Can Pot Stocks Aurora Cannabis and Canopy Growth Bounce Back in Q4?

股票極光大麻和canopy growth能在第四季度反彈嗎?
The Motley Fool ·  09/27 15:45

Canadian pot stocks such as Aurora Cannabis (TSX:ACB) and Canopy Growth (TSX:WEED) have trailed the broader markets by a wide margin after marijuana was legalized in the country in late 2018. In fact, both marijuana stocks are down 99% below record levels, burning massive investor wealth.

2018年底加拿大大麻合法化後,Aurora Cannabis(多倫多證券交易所股票代碼:ACB)和Canopy Growth(多倫多證券交易所股票代碼:WEED)等加拿大大麻股票在大盤中大幅落後。實際上,這兩隻大麻股票都比創紀錄的水平下跌了99%,燒燬了大量投資者的財富。

Canadian licensed cannabis producers have wrestled with a slew of industry-wide headwinds that include cannibalization from illegal sales, rising competition, and overvalued acquisitions, all of which resulted in an oversupply of pot products, high inventory levels, and widening losses.

加拿大持牌大麻生產商一直在努力應對一系列全行業的不利因素,包括非法銷售的蠶食、競爭加劇和估值過高的收購,所有這些都導致了大麻產品供過於求、庫存水平高和虧損擴大。

Let's see if Aurora Cannabis and Canopy Growth can finally stage a turnaround by the end of 2024.

讓我們看看Aurora Cannabis和Canopy Growth能否最終在2024年底之前實現轉機。

Is Aurora Cannabis a good buy today?

Aurora Cannabis 今天值得購買嗎?

Valued at $424 million by market cap, Aurora Cannabis reported revenue of $83.4 million in the fiscal first quarter (Q1) of 2025 (ended June), an increase of 12% year over year. Aurora Cannabis attributed its top-line growth to plant propagation revenue, which rose 16% to $23.1 million. While medical marijuana sales were up 13%, its retail cannabis declined by 10%.

按市值計算,Aurora Cannabis的估值爲4.24億美元,2025年第一財季(第一季度)(截至6月)收入爲8,340萬美元,同比增長12%。Aurora Cannabis將其收入增長歸因於植物繁殖收入,增長了16%,達到2310萬美元。雖然醫用大麻的銷售額增長了13%,但其零售大麻的銷售額下降了10%。

In the last two years, Aurora Cannabis has moved away from the retail cannabis market and focused on the higher-margin medical marijuana segment. It also acquired a controlling interest in Bevo, a plant propagation business. Bevo is among the largest suppliers of vegetable plants in North America and provides Aurora Cannabis with an opportunity to diversify its revenue and lower its reliance on the competitive retail cannabis business.

在過去的兩年中,Aurora Cannabis已退出零售大麻市場,專注於利潤率更高的醫用大麻細分市場。它還收購了植物繁殖公司Bevo的控股權。Bevo是北美最大的蔬菜植物供應商之一,爲Aurora Cannabis提供了實現收入多元化並降低對競爭激烈的零售大麻業務依賴的機會。

In the last 12 months, Aurora Cannabis has reported revenue of $279 million, an increase of 12.3% year over year. Moreover, it ended the June quarter with a gross margin of more than 53%, compared to just 6.6% in fiscal 2023.

在過去的12個月中,Aurora Cannabis公佈的收入爲2.79億美元,同比增長12.3%。此外,它在6月季度末的毛利率超過53%,而2023財年的毛利率僅爲6.6%。

Its improving profitability allowed Aurora Cannabis to report a free cash flow for the first time in fiscal Q1. However, investors should note that the free cash flow could fluctuate depending on the timing of receivables collected and the payment of liabilities.

其盈利能力的提高使Aurora Cannabis得以在第一財季首次報告自由現金流。但是,投資者應注意,自由現金流可能會根據收取應收賬款和償還負債的時間而波動。

Aurora Cannabis is focused on expanding into other international markets and growing operations, which should improve revenue and earnings growth in the near term. Analysts tracking ACB stock expect it to gain 22% in the next 12 months.

Aurora Cannabis專注於向其他國際市場擴張並發展業務,這將在短期內改善收入和收益的增長。追蹤ACB股票的分析師預計,該股將在未來12個月內上漲22%。

Is Canopy Growth stock undervalued?

Canopy Growth股票被低估了嗎?

Valued at $678 million by market cap, Canopy Growth closed its retail operations in Canada in early 2023, offloading 28 company-owned stores under brands such as Tokyo Smoke and Tweed. While the retail cannabis segment initially looked promising, the rise in competition has led to lower product prices and massive losses for Canopy Growth and its peers.

按市值計算,Canopy Growth的市值爲6.78億美元,於2023年初關閉了在加拿大的零售業務,卸下了Tokyo Smoke和Tweed等品牌的28家公司自有門店。儘管零售大麻細分市場最初看起來很有希望,但競爭的加劇導致產品價格下降,Canopy Growth及其同行蒙受巨額損失。

In fiscal Q1 of 2025 (ended in June), Canopy Growth reported sales of $66.2 million, down 13% year over year. However, its gross profit rose by 67% to $23 million due to its cost-savings program, lower inventory write-downs and a transition towards higher-margin medical marijuana products.

在2025財年第一季度(截至6月),Canopy Growth公佈的銷售額爲6,620萬美元,同比下降13%。但是,由於其成本節約計劃、減少庫存減記以及向利潤率更高的醫用大麻產品過渡,其毛利增長了67%,達到2300萬美元。

Despite increasing its gross margins by 1700 basis points, Canopy Growth remains unprofitable and reported an operating loss of $21.3 million. Additionally, its free cash outflow stood at $55.7 million, compared to an outflow of $150.6 million in the year-ago period.

儘管毛利率提高了1700個點子,但Canopy Growth仍然無利可圖,並公佈的營業虧損爲2,130萬美元。此外,其自由現金流出量爲5,570萬美元,而去年同期的流出量爲1.506億美元。

The Foolish takeaway

愚蠢的外賣

While Aurora Cannabis and Canopy Growth are improving their profit margins, both companies remain high-risk investments at current multiples. The pot stocks should showcase an ability to consistently deliver organic growth, service debt payments, and generate enough cash flow to fuel their expansion plans and gain investor confidence.

儘管Aurora Cannabis和Canopy Growth正在提高利潤率,但按目前的倍數計算,兩家公司仍是高風險投資。大麻股票應表現出持續實現有機增長、償還債務和產生足夠的現金流以推動其擴張計劃並獲得投資者信心的能力。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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