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Is It Too Late to Buy CP Stock?

Is It Too Late to Buy CP Stock?

現在買入CP股票是否太晚了?
The Motley Fool ·  09/27 16:30

The railway scene has been in for a pretty rough ride over the past few weeks. Undoubtedly, rail strike disruptions lasted for an incredibly short period of time. As I noted, such strike headlines were mostly near-term noise that meant absolutely nothing for the long-term fundamentals. Though rail strikes could leave a massive dent in the Canadian (and North American) economy as the goods stop moving from point A to point B, such disruptions would have likely translated to nothing more than better entry points for investors keen on adding to their exposure to the nation's top rail plays.

過去幾周鐵路行業經歷了相當艱難的時期。毫無疑問,鐵路罷工的影響僅持續了極其短暫的時間。正如我所指出的,這類罷工報道在很大程度上只是近期的噪音,對長期基本面毫無意義。儘管鐵路罷工可能在加拿大(和北美)經濟中留下巨大的傷痕,因爲貨物停止從A點到B點的運輸,但這種干擾很可能只會轉化爲投資者尋求增加其對該國頭部鐵路公司敞口的更好進入點。

In this piece, we'll have a closer look at CP Rail (TSX:CP) stock, or CPKC (short for Canadian Pacific Kansas City) as it's now called. Following the purchase of Kansas City Southern, the company now finds itself as the largest rail in the country with a towering $107 billion market cap.

在本文中,我們將更詳細地了解CP鐵路(tsx:CP)股票,或CPKC(簡稱加拿大太平洋堪薩斯城)如今被稱爲的股票。在購買了堪薩斯城南方鐵路後,該公司現在成爲了該國市值最高的鐵路公司,市值高達1070億美元。

CP Rail stock: It hasn't looked this pricey in a while!

CP鐵路股票:很久沒這麼貴過了!

CP Rail should not get too comfortable with its newfound market cap leadership position, though, as CN Rail (TSX:CNR) isn't all too far off with its $98.25 billion market cap. In any case, CP has been chugging forward at a faster rate than its long-time Canadian rival. But the big question is whether the momentum and superior stock chart make for a better buy as we enter the month of October.

儘管CP鐵路不應過於舒適於其最新的市值領先地位,因爲加拿大國家鐵路(tsx: CNR)以其市值982.5億美元並不相距太遠。無論如何,與其長期競爭對手相比,CP一直以更快的速度前進。但一個重要問題是,隨着我們進入十月,這種勢頭和優秀的股票圖表是否能夠帶來更好的買入機會。

There is a danger to buying the better-performing, often far pricier stock. And with CP stock just under 7% away from hitting all-time highs just shy of $124 per share, I think that investors asking if it's too late to buy are on the right track (pardon the pun, folks!).

購買表現更好、往往價格更高的股票存在風險。由於CP股票距離每股近124美元的歷史最高點僅不到7%的距離,我認爲那些在考慮是否爲時已晚時買入的投資者是正確的(請原諒我打了這個雙關語,朋友們!)。

Is too much hype baked into CP stock?

CP股票炒作過頭了嗎?

At these levels, CP stock goes for a whopping 30.8 times trailing price to earnings (P/E). That's expensive for a railway play, and I don't care how much better it performs than rivals. There's way too much hype baked in right here, likely because of the remaining potential behind Kansas City Southern's assets purchased nearly three years ago.

在這個水平上,CP股票以令人吃驚的30.8倍的滾動市盈率出售。對於一家鐵路公司來說,這是昂貴的,我不在乎它比競爭對手錶現得好多少。由於堪薩斯城南方鐵路資產購買近三年來仍存在潛力,這裏炒作得太過了。

Undoubtedly, the new rail network looks enviable, especially the part that extends into the southern U.S. and Mexico. Should more firms look to move production and assembly to Mexico, CP could benefit from cross-border volumes.

毫無疑問,這個新的鐵路網絡看起來令人豔羨,尤其是延伸到美國南部和墨西哥的部分。如果更多公司考慮將生產和裝配轉移到墨西哥,CP可能會從跨境運量中獲益。

That said, if Donald Trump is headed for the Oval Office again, I'd argue that big tariffs could be on the cars for goods shipped to the U.S. from Mexico.

話雖如此,如果特朗普再次進入總統辦公室,我認爲對從墨西哥運往美國的商品徵收高額關稅可能不可避免。

As such, I would not get overly bullish about CP Rail's unique network. Arguably, I think there's way too much enthusiasm baked into CP right here. Sure, it's the growthier, more exciting rail firm right here. However, you're paying a fat premium with the stock going for $114 and change, perhaps too fat a premium.

因此,我不會對加拿大太平洋鐵路獨特的網絡過於看好。可以說,我認爲目前CP股價中蘊含着過於樂觀的熱情。當然,它是更具增長性、更令人興奮的鐵路公司。但是,以目前股價爲114美元左右交易,可能是一個過高的溢價。

Is it too late to buy CP stock?

現在買入CP股票是否已經太晚了?

Personally, I'd much rather go for a cheaper rail play. Whether you opt for CN Rail, which goes for 18.5 times trailing P/E, or one based out of the U.S., value investors can do better with almost any other North American rail. In short, I think it's too late to be a buyer of CP Rail stock. It's just way too expensive at north of 30 times trailing P/E.

就我個人而言,我更願意選擇更便宜的鐵路投資。無論您選擇加拿大國家鐵路(CN Rail),其市盈率爲18.5倍,還是選擇美國的一家鐵路公司,價值投資者幾乎可以在任何其他北美鐵路股票上找到更好的機會。簡而言之,我認爲現在買加拿大太平洋鐵路(CP Rail)的股票已經太遲了。其市盈率遠超過30倍。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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