Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key financial metrics. Firstly, we'd want to identify a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and then alongside that, an ever-increasing base of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think Marriott Vacations Worldwide (NYSE:VAC) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. To calculate this metric for Marriott Vacations Worldwide, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.057 = US$506m ÷ (US$9.6b - US$795m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

So, Marriott Vacations Worldwide has an ROCE of 5.7%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Hospitality industry average of 10%.

In the above chart we have measured Marriott Vacations Worldwide's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Marriott Vacations Worldwide .

What Does the ROCE Trend For Marriott Vacations Worldwide Tell Us?

Over the past five years, Marriott Vacations Worldwide's ROCE and capital employed have both remained mostly flat. Businesses with these traits tend to be mature and steady operations because they're past the growth phase. With that in mind, unless investment picks up again in the future, we wouldn't expect Marriott Vacations Worldwide to be a multi-bagger going forward. This probably explains why Marriott Vacations Worldwide is paying out 41% of its income to shareholders in the form of dividends. Given the business isn't reinvesting in itself, it makes sense to distribute a portion of earnings among shareholders.

The Key Takeaway

In summary, Marriott Vacations Worldwide isn't compounding its earnings but is generating stable returns on the same amount of capital employed. Since the stock has declined 22% over the last five years, investors may not be too optimistic on this trend improving either. All in all, the inherent trends aren't typical of multi-baggers, so if that's what you're after, we think you might have more luck elsewhere.

If you want to know some of the risks facing Marriott Vacations Worldwide we've found 4 warning signs (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

While Marriott Vacations Worldwide may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.