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Is Jiangsu Huachang Chemical (SZSE:002274) A Risky Investment?

Is Jiangsu Huachang Chemical (SZSE:002274) A Risky Investment?

江蘇華昌化工(SZSE:002274)是否是一項風險投資?
Simply Wall St ·  2024/10/02 09:09

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Jiangsu Huachang Chemical Co., Ltd (SZSE:002274) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

傳奇基金經理李錄(查理芒格支持)曾經說過:'最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受資本永久損失。' 因此,聰明人似乎知道,債務(通常涉及破產)是評估公司風險時的一個非常重要因素。與許多其他公司一樣,華昌化工股份有限公司(SZSE:002274)利用了債務。但更重要的問題是:這筆債務帶來了多少風險?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

爲什麼債務會帶來風險?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但如果一家企業無法償還債權人,那麼它就處在了他們的掌控之下。資本主義的一個重要方面是「創造性破壞」過程中,倒閉的企業被銀行家無情地清算。然而,更常見的(但仍然成本很高的)情況是,一家公司必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東,僅僅爲了控制債務。話雖如此,最常見的情況是一家公司管理自己的債務相當好,並且利用它們實現自己的優勢。考慮一家公司的債務水平時的第一步是將其現金和債務放在一起進行考慮。

What Is Jiangsu Huachang Chemical's Net Debt?

江蘇華昌化工的淨債務是多少?

As you can see below, Jiangsu Huachang Chemical had CN¥130.2m of debt at June 2024, down from CN¥640.2m a year prior. But on the other hand it also has CN¥589.7m in cash, leading to a CN¥459.5m net cash position.

正如您在下文所見,2024年6月,江蘇華昌化工的債務爲13020萬人民幣,低於一年前的64020萬人民幣。但另一方面,它還有58970萬人民幣的現金,導致淨現金頭寸達45950萬人民幣。

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SZSE:002274 Debt to Equity History October 2nd 2024
SZSE:002274資產負債歷史數據,2024年10月2日

How Strong Is Jiangsu Huachang Chemical's Balance Sheet?

華昌化工的資產負債表有多堅實?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Jiangsu Huachang Chemical had liabilities of CN¥2.18b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥6.14m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥589.7m in cash and CN¥1.66b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it actually has CN¥57.3m more liquid assets than total liabilities.

深入研究最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到華昌化工在12個月內到期的負債爲21.8億人民幣,超過12個月到期的負債爲614萬人民幣。與此相抵,它在手頭有58970萬人民幣的現金和16.6億人民幣的應收賬款,在12個月內到期。因此,它實際上比總負債多擁有5730萬人民幣的流動資產。

Having regard to Jiangsu Huachang Chemical's size, it seems that its liquid assets are well balanced with its total liabilities. So while it's hard to imagine that the CN¥7.80b company is struggling for cash, we still think it's worth monitoring its balance sheet. Succinctly put, Jiangsu Huachang Chemical boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

考慮到華昌化工的規模,似乎其流動資產與總負債之間的平衡良好。因此,雖然很難想象這家78億人民幣的公司會因爲現金短缺而陷入困境,但我們仍認爲值得關注其資產負債表。簡言之,華昌化工擁有淨現金,因此可以說它沒有沉重的債務負擔!

In addition to that, we're happy to report that Jiangsu Huachang Chemical has boosted its EBIT by 67%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Jiangsu Huachang Chemical will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

除此之外,我們很高興地報告,華昌化工將其EBIT提高了67%,從而降低了未來債務償還的不確定性。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時應重點關注的領域。但你不能將債務完全孤立地看待;因爲華昌化工需要盈利來償還債務。所以,如果你渴望了解更多關於其盈利情況的信息,不妨查看一下其長期盈利趨勢圖表。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. Jiangsu Huachang Chemical may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the most recent three years, Jiangsu Huachang Chemical recorded free cash flow worth 68% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

最後,一家公司只能用冷硬現金償還債務,而不是會計利潤。 華昌化工的資產負債表上可能有淨現金,但看看企業如何將其息稅前利潤(EBIT)轉化爲自由現金流的能力是很有趣的,因爲這將影響其管理債務的需求和能力。 在最近的三年中,華昌化工記錄的自由現金流價值相當於其EBIT的68%,這在正常範圍之內,因爲自由現金流不包括利息和稅收。這種自由現金流使公司在適當時能夠償還債務處於有利地位。

Summing Up

總之

While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Jiangsu Huachang Chemical has CN¥459.5m in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. And it impressed us with its EBIT growth of 67% over the last year. So we don't think Jiangsu Huachang Chemical's use of debt is risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example - Jiangsu Huachang Chemical has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

雖然調查公司的債務總是明智的,在這種情況下,華昌化工的淨現金爲45950萬人民幣,資產負債表看起來還不錯。而且,過去一年其EBIt增長了67%讓我們印象深刻。因此,我們認爲華昌化工的債務使用並不冒險。毫無疑問,我們大部分關於債務的了解來自資產負債表。但最終,每家公司都可能存在超出資產負債表之外的風險。例如,我們認爲你應該注意到 華昌化工 有 1個警告標誌。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

歸根結底,專注於沒有淨債務的公司往往更好。您可以訪問我們的特別列表,其中包括所有表現出盈利增長軌跡的公司。這是免費的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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