China Xinhua Education Group Limited (HKG:2779) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 32% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 30% in the last year.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, China Xinhua Education Group's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 3.4x might still make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 10x and even P/E's above 20x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.

Recent times have been quite advantageous for China Xinhua Education Group as its earnings have been rising very briskly. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

How Is China Xinhua Education Group's Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, China Xinhua Education Group would need to produce anemic growth that's substantially trailing the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 39%. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen a very unpleasant 11% drop in EPS in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 22% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's understandable that China Xinhua Education Group's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. However, we think shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as recent earnings trends are already weighing down the shares.

The Key Takeaway

China Xinhua Education Group's recent share price jump still sees its P/E sitting firmly flat on the ground. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that China Xinhua Education Group maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its sliding earnings over the medium-term, as expected. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for China Xinhua Education Group that you need to take into consideration.

You might be able to find a better investment than China Xinhua Education Group. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.