Amazon's Profitable Essential Merchandise, Efficiency Gains Set To Drive Growth: Analyst
Amazon's Profitable Essential Merchandise, Efficiency Gains Set To Drive Growth: Analyst
The price target implies paying 20 times fiscal 2027 free cash flow for 24% growth (fiscal 2025-2027 free cash flow per share CAGR) and 0.8 times on a growth-adjusted basis, a ~20% discount to Amazon's mega-cap tech peer median growth-adjusted multiple of 1.1 times.Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak reiterated Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) with an Overweight rating and a $210 price target.
摩根士丹利分析師布賴恩·諾瓦克重申了對亞馬遜公司（納斯達克股票代碼：AMZN）的超配評級，目標股價爲210美元。
Amazon traded at 22 times Nowak's 2026 free cash flow, representing 29% growth (fiscal 2024-2026 free cash flow per share CAGR). He said this is a ~30% discount to Amazon's mega-cap tech peer median growth-adjusted multiple on a growth-adjusted basis.
亞馬遜交易的價格是諾瓦克2026年自由現金流的22倍，代表了29%的增長（2024-2026財年每股自由現金流複合年增長率）。他表示，這相當於亞馬遜的大型科技同行的增長調整後倍數的約30%折扣。
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The price target implies paying 20 times fiscal 2027 free cash flow for 24% growth (fiscal 2025-2027 free cash flow per share CAGR) and 0.8 times on a growth-adjusted basis, a ~20% discount to Amazon's mega-cap tech peer median growth-adjusted multiple of 1.1 times.
目標股價意味着爲了24%的增長（2025-2027財年每股自由現金流複合年增長率），支付2027財年自由現金流的20倍，以及增長調整後基礎上的0.8倍，相當於亞馬遜的大型科技同行的增長調整後倍數1.1倍的約20%折扣。
Nowak noted the tactical risk to fourth-quarter EBIT but is buying weakness into fiscal 2025 as the profit challenges are temporary and not structural.
諾瓦克指出了第四季度EBIt的戰術風險，但會在2025財年的盈利挑戰是暫時的，不是結構性的情況下買入疲弱股份。
Nowak said Amazon's growing focus on lower-priced, lower-margin essentials drives merchandise margin pressure, which is holding back the near-term slope of its North American retail profit ramp. Expected discounting in a competitive holiday season creates further near-term uncertainty, he said.
諾瓦克表示，亞馬遜不斷增加對低價、低利潤必需品的關注，導致了商品毛利的壓力，這正在抑制其北美零售利潤的短期增長。預計在競爭激烈的假日季節中打折促銷進一步增加了短期不確定性，他說。
According to the analyst, Amazon makes low-priced essentials profitable and the cost to serve still leads to $8-$9 free cash flow per share. Corporate efficiencies could lead to $2 billion-$4 billion of further savings, and Project Kuiper and headcount models speak to minimal headwinds here.
根據該分析師的說法，亞馬遜讓低價必需品變得有盈利，服務成本仍導致每股8-9美元的自由現金流。公司效率可能帶來20億至40億的額外節省，而Kuiper項目和人員模型顯示這裏幾乎沒有阻力。
Nowak said Amazon management's recent letter outlining an increased focus on efficiency should lead to a further EBIT cushion and upside in fiscal 2025.
諾瓦克表示，亞馬遜管理層最近發表的一封信中強調了效率的增加，將導致進一步的EBIt緩衝和2025財年增長。
Project Kuiper is likely to be manageable from a P&L-impact perspective, Nowak said. He noted Amazon's growing net cash balance creates a higher probability of capital returns in fiscal 2025.
Nowak表示，從利潤與損失影響的角度來看，Project Kuiper可能是可以管理的。他指出，亞馬遜不斷增長的淨現金餘額增加了2025財年資本返還的可能性。
Nowak projected fiscal 2024 revenue of $633.96 billion and EPS of $4.80. He expects fiscal 2025 revenue of $ 697.94 billion and EPS of $5.93.
Nowak預計2024財年營業收入爲6339.6億美元，每股收益爲4.80美元。他預計2025財年營業收入爲6979.4億美元，每股收益爲5.93美元。
AMZN Price Action: Amazon stock is down 1.15% at $182.64 at publication Thursday.
AMZN股票行情：亞馬遜股價週四發佈時下跌1.15%，報182.64美元。
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Photo: shutterstock