The China Digital Video Holdings Limited (HKG:8280) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 46%. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 95% in the last year.
Even after such a large jump in price, China Digital Video Holdings may still be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x, since almost half of all companies in the Entertainment industry in Hong Kong have P/S ratios greater than 1.6x and even P/S higher than 4x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/S.
What Does China Digital Video Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?
For example, consider that China Digital Video Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the disappointing revenue performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/S. Those who are bullish on China Digital Video Holdings will be hoping that this isn't the case so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on China Digital Video Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.
Is There Any Revenue Growth Forecasted For China Digital Video Holdings?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as low as China Digital Video Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to lag the industry.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 30% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 56% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 36% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.
With this information, we are not surprised that China Digital Video Holdings is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/S has reached a floor yet with revenue going in reverse. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.
The Bottom Line On China Digital Video Holdings' P/S
The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift China Digital Video Holdings' P/S close to the industry median. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
As we suspected, our examination of China Digital Video Holdings revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term is contributing to its low P/S, given the industry is set to grow. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises either. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with China Digital Video Holdings, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on China Digital Video Holdings, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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