A Look At The Fair Value Of Canature Health Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300272)
A Look At The Fair Value Of Canature Health Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300272)
Key Insights
主要見解
- The projected fair value for Canature Health Technology is CN¥5.64 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- With CN¥6.57 share price, Canature Health Technology appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
- Canature Health Technology's peers seem to be trading at a higher premium to fair value based onthe industry average of -331%
- 基於2階段自由現金流向股權的預測公允價值爲人民幣5.64元的開能健康科技
- 以每股人民幣6.57元的價格,開能健康科技似乎接近其估計的公允價值交易
- 根據行業平均值爲-331%,開能健康科技的同行似乎以更高的溢價交易
Does the October share price for Canature Health Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300272) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
開能健康科技有限公司(SZSE:300272)的十月份股價反映了它實際價值嗎?今天,我們將通過預測未來現金流並將其折現回今天的價值來估算該股票的內在價值。 我們將利用折現現金流量(DCF)模型進行此目的。 不要被術語嚇到,其背後的數學實際上非常簡單明瞭。
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
我們通常認爲,公司的價值是它未來所產生的所有現金的現值。然而,DCF只是衆多估值指標之一,它也不是沒有缺陷的。如果您對這種估值方法仍有疑問,請參閱Simply Wall St分析模型。
The Calculation
計算方法
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我們將採用兩階段折現現金流模型,就像名稱所示,它會考慮到兩個時期的增長。 第一個時期通常是一個增長較快的時期,隨着進入第二個「平穩增長」時期的末期價值逐漸穩定。 首先,我們需要估算未來10年的現金流。鑑於我們沒有分析師對自由現金流的預估,我們需要從公司上次公佈的財務數據中推斷出之前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設自由現金流萎縮的公司會減緩萎縮率,而自由現金流增長的公司將在此期間看到增長率減緩。我們這樣做是爲了反映增長在早期年份的放緩更甚於在後來的年份。
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
普遍認爲今天的一美元比將來的一美元更有價值,因此我們需要貼現這些未來的現金流總和來得出現值估計:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
10年自由現金流 (FCF) 預估值
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥239.3m | CN¥242.8m | CN¥247.4m | CN¥252.7m | CN¥258.7m | CN¥265.2m | CN¥272.2m | CN¥279.5m | CN¥287.1m | CN¥295.1m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 0.87% | Est @ 1.47% | Est @ 1.88% | Est @ 2.17% | Est @ 2.38% | Est @ 2.52% | Est @ 2.62% | Est @ 2.69% | Est @ 2.74% | Est @ 2.77% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 10% | CN¥217 | CN¥200 | CN¥185 | CN¥172 | CN¥160 | CN¥149 | CN¥139 | CN¥129 | CN¥121 | CN¥113 |
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
槓桿自由現金流量(人民幣,百萬) | 人民幣239.3m | ¥242.8m | 247.4百萬元 | 252.7百萬元 | 258.7百萬元 | 人民幣265.2百萬 | 272.2百萬人民幣 | 279.5百萬人民幣 | 287.1百萬人民幣 | 295.1百萬人民幣 |
增長率估計來源 | 預計@0.87% | 預計@ 1.47% | 預計@1.88% | 預期 @ 2.17% | 3850萬美元 | 預計爲2.52% | 按2.62%估算 | 2.69%的預測值 | 估計爲2.74%。 | 以2.77%的速度增長 |
現值(萬元人民幣,百萬分之十折現) | 217人民幣 | 200元人民幣 | 185元。 | CN¥172 | 人民幣160元 | 149元人民幣 | 人民幣139 | CN¥129 | 121元人民幣 | 人民幣113元 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥1.6b
("Est" = Simply Wall St 估計的自由現金流增長率)
十年現金流的現值(PVCF) = 人民幣1.6億
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 10%.
第二階段也被稱爲終端價值,即第一階段後業務的現金流量。戈登增長公式用於計算終端價值,以未來年增長率等於10年政府債券收益率5年平均水平的2.9%。我們以10%的股本成本率將終端現金流現值折現到今天的價值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥295m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (10%– 2.9%) = CN¥4.2b
終值(TV)= 自由現金流2034 × (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (10%– 2.9%) = 295百萬人民幣 × (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (10%– 2.9%) = 42億元人民幣
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥4.2b÷ ( 1 + 10%)10= CN¥1.6b
終值的現值(PVTV)= TV / (1 + 10%)10 = 4.2億元人民幣 ÷ (1 + 10%)10 = 1.6億元人民幣
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥3.2b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥6.6, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
總值爲未來十年現金流與貼現終值之和,得出的總股權價值,在這種情況下爲32億人民幣。最後一步是將股權價值除以未來流通股份的數量。與當前的6.6億元人民幣的股價相比,在撰寫本文時,公司似乎在公允價值區間內。請記住,這只是一個近似估值,就像任何複雜的公式一樣,輸出取決於輸入。
The Assumptions
假設
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Canature Health Technology as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.455. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
我們要指出,貼現現金流最重要的輸入是貼現率,當然還有實際現金流。如果您不同意這些結果,請自行嘗試計算並修改假設。DCF模型還沒有考慮行業可能存在的週期性,或公司未來的資本需求,因此並不能全面反映公司的潛在表現。鑑於我們正在研究開能健康作爲潛在股東,成本權益被用作折現率,而不是資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)考慮債務。在這個計算中,我們使用了10%,這是基於1.455的槓桿beta的。貝塔是股票波動性的度量,相對於整個市場。我們的beta值來自與全球可比公司的行業平均beta,設定在0.8和2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務合理的範圍。
Next Steps:
下一步:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Canature Health Technology, we've put together three important factors you should assess:
在建立投資論點時,估值僅僅是一個方面,理想情況下不應該是您對公司進行深入分析的唯一側重點。DCF模型並非投資估值的全部和終極標準。相反,DCF模型最好的用途是測試某些假設和理論,看看它們是否會導致公司被低估或高估。例如,公司的權益成本或無風險利率的變化可能會對估值產生顯著影響。對於開能健康,我們已經整理了您應該評估的三個重要因素:
- Risks: As an example, we've found 2 warning signs for Canature Health Technology that you need to consider before investing here.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
- Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!
- 風險:舉例來說,我們發現了2個有關開能健康的警示信號,您在考慮投資前需要考慮這些。
- 其他高質量選擇:你喜歡一個好的多面手嗎?瀏覽我們的高質量股票交互列表,了解還有哪些你可能錯過的好東西!
- 其他環保型公司:擔心環境問題,並認爲消費者將越來越多地購買環保產品?瀏覽我們的交互式公司列表,了解一些您可能沒有想到的股票!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS. Simply Wall St每天都會更新其所覆蓋的每隻中國股票的DCF計算,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的內在價值,只需在此搜索即可。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。