China Agri-Products Exchange Limited (HKG:149) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 34% after a shaky period beforehand. Still, the 30-day jump doesn't change the fact that longer term shareholders have seen their stock decimated by the 58% share price drop in the last twelve months.

Since its price has surged higher, China Agri-Products Exchange's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 58.2x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 10x and even P/E's below 6x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

China Agri-Products Exchange has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings at a solid pace. It might be that many expect the respectable earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

How Is China Agri-Products Exchange's Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like China Agri-Products Exchange's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 7.6%. However, this wasn't enough as the latest three year period has seen an unpleasant 98% overall drop in EPS. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 22% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's alarming that China Agri-Products Exchange's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

The strong share price surge has got China Agri-Products Exchange's P/E rushing to great heights as well. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that China Agri-Products Exchange currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

You need to take note of risks, for example - China Agri-Products Exchange has 3 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.