We Think Corteva (NYSE:CTVA) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
We Think Corteva (NYSE:CTVA) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Corteva, Inc. (NYSE:CTVA) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
禾倫·巴菲特曾經說過:「波動性 與 風險 有天壤之別。」所以,明智的投資者知道,債務——通常伴隨破產出現—— 是評估公司風險程度時的一個非常重要因素。值得注意的是,Corteva, Inc. (紐交所:CTVA) 確實存在債務。但真正的問題是,這筆債務是否讓公司變得更加風險。
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
債務帶來了什麼風險?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
債務能夠助力企業,直到企業付不起債務,無論是用新資本還是自由現金流。資本主義的一部分是「創造性破壞」過程,失敗的企業無情地被它們的銀行家清算。然而,更常見的情況(但仍然痛苦),是企業必須以低價籌集新股權資本,從而永久性地稀釋股東利益。通過取代稀釋,債務可以成爲企業的一個極好的工具,當企業需要資本以高回報率的投資增長時。當我們考慮一個公司的債務使用時,我們首先要考慮現金和債務的總體情況。
What Is Corteva's Net Debt?
Corteva的淨債務是多少?
As you can see below, Corteva had US$4.72b of debt at June 2024, down from US$5.31b a year prior. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$1.96b, its net debt is less, at about US$2.76b.
正如下文所示,Corteva在2024年6月的債務爲47.2億美元,比一年前的53.1億美元有所減少。然而,由於其現金儲備爲19.6億美元,其淨債務較少,約爲27.6億美元。
How Strong Is Corteva's Balance Sheet?
莊敏磷的資產負債表有多強?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Corteva had liabilities of US$8.95b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$7.09b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$1.96b in cash and US$7.64b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$6.44b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
根據最近公佈的資產負債表顯示,莊敏磷有895億美元的短期負債,709億美元的長期負債。 與此相抵的是,它有196億美元的現金和764億美元的應收賬款,這些應收款在12個月內到期。 因此,它的負債總額比其現金和短期應收款合計多644億美元。
Given Corteva has a humongous market capitalization of US$40.4b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
鑑於莊敏磷市值高達404億美元,很難相信這些負債會構成多大威脅。 話雖如此,明顯我們應繼續監測其資產負債表,以防情況惡化。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
爲了對公司的債務相對於其收益進行規模適應,我們計算其淨債務與利息、稅、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)之比及其稅前收益(EBIT)與利息支出之比(利息保障倍數)。因此,我們既考慮到不包括折舊和攤銷費用在內的收益,又包括折舊和攤銷費用的收益相對於債務。
Corteva has a low debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.86. But the really cool thing is that it actually managed to receive more interest than it paid, over the last year. So there's no doubt this company can take on debt while staying cool as a cucumber. On the other hand, Corteva saw its EBIT drop by 4.7% in the last twelve months. That sort of decline, if sustained, will obviously make debt harder to handle. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Corteva's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
莊敏磷的債務與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)比率僅爲0.86。 但真正酷的是,它實際上在過去一年裏獲得的利息超過了支付的利息。 因此,毫無疑問,這家公司能夠承擔債務,同時保持泰然自若。 另一方面,莊敏磷在過去十二個月中看到其息稅前利潤(EBIT)下降了4.7%。 如果這種下跌持續,顯然會使債務更難處理。 當你分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是需要關注的領域。 但最終決定莊敏磷能否保持健康資產負債表的是未來的收益,而不是其他任何因素。 因此,如果你專注於未來,可以查看這份展示分析師盈利預測的免費報告。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. In the last three years, Corteva's free cash flow amounted to 32% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
最後,一家公司只能用冷硬現金償還債務,而不能用會計利潤。 因此,我們明顯需要觀察息稅前利潤是否導致相應的自由現金流。 在過去三年中,莊敏磷的自由現金流相當於其息稅前利潤的32%,低於我們的預期。 在償還債務方面,這並不理想。
Our View
我們的觀點
On our analysis Corteva's interest cover should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For example, its EBIT growth rate makes us a little nervous about its debt. Considering this range of data points, we think Corteva is in a good position to manage its debt levels. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Corteva that you should be aware of before investing here.
根據我們的分析,Corteva的利息支付倍數應該表明它不會在債務方面遇到太多麻煩。但我們上面提到的其他因素並不那麼令人鼓舞。例如,其EBIt增長率讓我們對其債務有些擔憂。考慮到這些數據點的範圍,我們認爲Corteva在管理其債務水平方面處於良好位置。但警告一句:我們認爲債務水平高到足以證明需要持續監測。資產負債表顯然是進行債務分析時要重點關注的領域。然而,並非所有投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。例如,我們發現了一個應該在投資這裏之前注意的Corteva的警示信號。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
如果在所有這些之後,您更感興趣的是具有堅實資產負債表的快速增長公司,那麼不要拖延,查看我們的淨現金增長股票列表。
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